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Metals Focus Research

Will the Turkish gold retail investment recover in H2.26?

लेखक: Metals Focus · 3 जुलाई 2026

  • Turkish Gold Retail Investment Trends
    • Historical Volatility and Economic Drivers
      • Retail investment in small bars and coins rose from 61t in 2021 to a record 150t in 2023, before declining to 71t in 2025 (p. 1).
      • Demand has been driven by high inflation, which peaked officially at 65% in December 2023, and ongoing concerns regarding currency stability (p. 1).
      • Despite recent corrections, Turkey was the world’s third-largest market for retail gold investment in 2025, trailing only China and India (p. 1).
    • Impact of Monetary Policy on Demand
      • Aggressive interest rate hikes to 50% in 2024 by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) initially reduced gold's appeal compared to lira-denominated savings (p. 3).
      • A subsequent easing cycle, which saw the policy rate move from 43% to 40.5%, helped net investment rise 30% year-on-year to 26t in Q1 2026 (p. 3).
      • Investment growth in 2026 is expected to be modest, as domestic interest rates remain high enough to prevent a return to 2023–2024 peak buying levels (p. 5).
    • Supply Dynamics and Local Premiums
      • Import restrictions were implemented in 2023 to protect foreign exchange reserves, contributing to local premiums reaching $200/oz in early 2024 (p. 3).
      • Premiums were highly volatile in early 2026, spiking to $400/oz in February before retreating to single-digit discounts or low double-digit premiums by June (p. 5).
      • Local premiums are projected to remain largely contained between $25–35/oz for the remainder of 2026 (p. 5).
  • Global Precious Metals Market Updates
    • Gold and Silver Market Movements
      • International gold prices rose above $4,100 in June 2026 following US job growth data that fell below market expectations (p. 1).
      • The gold:silver ratio retreated toward 67 after briefly surpassing 70 for the first time since February (p. 1).
    • Industrial and Automotive Sector Developments
      • A joint venture between Acme Group and IHI received Japanese government backing for a planned green ammonia production facility (p. 1).
      • Toyota's global production decreased by 5.5% year-on-year in May to 765,000 units, while sales fell 7.2% to 834,000 units (p. 1).

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