Solar cells; silver under attack from three sides

Longi Green Energy's Transition to Copper-Based Solar Cells (p. 2)
- Longi announced in January that it would begin mass production of copper-based solar cells in Q2 2026 to reduce reliance on high and volatile silver prices (p. 2).
- The company's 21GW back-contact cell operation at the Xixian plant in Shaanxi province is onstream, marking the first implementation of its silver-free Alloy Contact Matrix (ACM) (p. 2).
  - Longi resolved the issue of copper diffusing into the silicon wafer by inserting a nanoscale barrier layer (p. 2).
  - The use of a copper alloy also prevents potential oxidation issues (p. 2).
- ACM cells have a typical conversion efficiency of 27.6%, raising power output by less than 1% (p. 2).
Silver and Copper Demand Dynamics in Photovoltaics (p. 2)
- Solar cells account for approximately 20% of silver fabrication demand and 28% of industrial usage, with 2025 demand placed at 5,804 tonnes (p. 2).
- Silver loadings per GW vary by cell type, with Fraunhofer ISE estimating 5-10mg and ITRPV estimating 9–17mg/W (p. 2).
- Copper demand in the sector is estimated at 2,600t/GW, which is 1.5 to 3 times higher intensity than traditional power infrastructure (p. 2).
- Generating equivalent conduction to silver requires 5.7% more copper by mass and 20% more copper by volume due to differences in density and conductivity (p. 2).
Nornickel's Palladium Laboratory and Alternative Applications (p. 3)
- Nornickel has opened the world's first palladium laboratory in the Lomonosov cluster in Moscow as a US$100M anchor project of its Palladium Centre (p. 3).
- The laboratory aims to develop alternative uses for palladium to offset the projected decline in the internal combustion engine (ICE) auto sector, which currently accounts for 80% of global industrial usage for palladium and rhodium (p. 3).
- Key research areas include:
  - Adding palladium to perovskite solar cells to boost their efficiency by 15% (p. 3).
  - Substituting palladium for gold in microelectronics to make technologies cheaper and more efficient (p. 3).
  - Training AI models to design new inorganic materials and alloys (p. 3).
Silver Supply and Demand Balance Forecasts (p. 4)
- Total silver supply is projected to decrease from 33,915 tonnes in 2025 to 33,169 tonnes in 2026, before rising to 33,550 tonnes in 2027 (p. 4).
- Photovoltaic demand for silver is forecast to decline from 5,804 tonnes in 2025 to 4,697 tonnes in 2026 and 4,572 tonnes in 2027 (p. 4).
- Industrial demand as a percentage of fabrication is expected to rise steadily from 72.0% in 2025 to 74.8% in 2026 and 76.9% in 2027 (p. 4).
- The overall silver balance (including investment and ETPs) is projected to shift from a deficit of 9,903 tonnes in 2025 to a surplus of 2,532 tonnes in 2026 (p. 4).

Longi Green Energy's Transition to Copper-Based Solar Cells (p. 2)
- Longi announced in January that it would begin mass production of copper-based solar cells in Q2 2026 to reduce reliance on high and volatile silver prices (p. 2).
- The company's 21GW back-contact cell operation at the Xixian plant in Shaanxi province is onstream, marking the first implementation of its silver-free Alloy Contact Matrix (ACM) (p. 2).
  - Longi resolved the issue of copper diffusing into the silicon wafer by inserting a nanoscale barrier layer (p. 2).
  - The use of a copper alloy also prevents potential oxidation issues (p. 2).
- ACM cells have a typical conversion efficiency of 27.6%, raising power output by less than 1% (p. 2).
Silver and Copper Demand Dynamics in Photovoltaics (p. 2)
- Solar cells account for approximately 20% of silver fabrication demand and 28% of industrial usage, with 2025 demand placed at 5,804 tonnes (p. 2).
- Silver loadings per GW vary by cell type, with Fraunhofer ISE estimating 5-10mg and ITRPV estimating 9–17mg/W (p. 2).
- Copper demand in the sector is estimated at 2,600t/GW, which is 1.5 to 3 times higher intensity than traditional power infrastructure (p. 2).
- Generating equivalent conduction to silver requires 5.7% more copper by mass and 20% more copper by volume due to differences in density and conductivity (p. 2).
Nornickel's Palladium Laboratory and Alternative Applications (p. 3)
- Nornickel has opened the world's first palladium laboratory in the Lomonosov cluster in Moscow as a US$100M anchor project of its Palladium Centre (p. 3).
- The laboratory aims to develop alternative uses for palladium to offset the projected decline in the internal combustion engine (ICE) auto sector, which currently accounts for 80% of global industrial usage for palladium and rhodium (p. 3).
- Key research areas include:
  - Adding palladium to perovskite solar cells to boost their efficiency by 15% (p. 3).
  - Substituting palladium for gold in microelectronics to make technologies cheaper and more efficient (p. 3).
  - Training AI models to design new inorganic materials and alloys (p. 3).
Silver Supply and Demand Balance Forecasts (p. 4)
- Total silver supply is projected to decrease from 33,915 tonnes in 2025 to 33,169 tonnes in 2026, before rising to 33,550 tonnes in 2027 (p. 4).
- Photovoltaic demand for silver is forecast to decline from 5,804 tonnes in 2025 to 4,697 tonnes in 2026 and 4,572 tonnes in 2027 (p. 4).
- Industrial demand as a percentage of fabrication is expected to rise steadily from 72.0% in 2025 to 74.8% in 2026 and 76.9% in 2027 (p. 4).
- The overall silver balance (including investment and ETPs) is projected to shift from a deficit of 9,903 tonnes in 2025 to a surplus of 2,532 tonnes in 2026 (p. 4).

Solar cells; silver under attack from three sides

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Solar cells; silver under attack from three sides

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