Weekly gold and silver round-up, written for retail clients

Market Outlook and Regional Demand Dynamics
- Downside risks persist for precious metals, with narrow trading ranges expected to continue (p. 1).
  - Far East retail buying is offset by sales elsewhere in the region, resulting in a zero-sum game (p. 1).
  - Middle Eastern activity remains subdued with gold trading at a discount (p. 1).
  - India is showing developing interest in both gold and silver, representing 51% of the silver jewelry/silverware sector and 9% of total global offtake (p. 1).
Inflation and Energy Price Influences
- June 2026 headline CPI fell by 0.4%, driven almost entirely by a nearly 6% drop in energy prices (p. 1).
  - This drop is expected to reverse in July 2026 (p. 1).
  - Energy comprised ~8% of the total CPI basket in June, compared to the historical norm of 6-7% (p. 1).
- Crude oil (WTI) prices settled at $84, down 26% from the April 6th high of $113 but up 24% year-over-year (p. 1).
  - Prices could drift toward $70 over the next 12 months if the Middle East war premium unwinds (p. 1).
Monetary Policy and Bond Yields
- The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is divided over future monetary policy ahead of its July 28/29 meeting (p. 2).
  - Roughly 50% of the committee favors further tightening if inflation persists, while the rest prefer to remain steady (p. 2).
  - FOMC member Chris Waller suggested rate hikes may be necessary if inflation remains strong, pointing to tariffs, high energy prices, and AI investments (p. 2).
- The US 10-year bond yield rose from below 4% at the end of February to 4.6%, acting as a headwind for gold and silver (p. 2).
Precious Metals Positioning and ETF Flows
- CFTC positioning for the week ending July 14 showed contrasting trends for gold and silver (p. 2).
  - Gold saw a mildly bullish tone with a 1.5% (6.1t) gain in Managed Money longs and 18.3% (8.3t) of short covering (p. 2).
  - Silver experienced a 9% (280t) drop in outright longs and a 1% (6.2t) rise in outright shorts (p. 2).
- Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) experienced mixed regional flows (p. 2).
  - World Gold Council data to July 10 showed a YTD gold ETF gain of 15t to 4,045t, with North American holdings falling 3% (67t) and Asian holdings rising 16% (68t) (p. 2).
  - Silver ETFs fell by 2,408t YTD to 24,413t, despite late-week bargain hunting picking up 128t (p. 2).
Market Correlations and Price Performance
- Asset correlations showed shifting dynamics (pp. 3-4).
  - The S&P/gold correlation tightened to 0.69, while the S&P/copper correlation remained steady at 0.49 (p. 3).
  - The silver-gold correlation tightened to 0.83, while the silver-copper correlation eased to 0.68 (p. 4).
- Precious metals prices fell week-over-week as of July 20, 2026 (p. 5).
  - Gold (pm LBMA) fell 2.41% to $4,064.89, representing a 6.17% decline YTD (p. 5).
  - Silver (LBMA) fell 5.47% to $58.66, representing a 23.41% decline YTD (p. 5).

Market Outlook and Regional Demand Dynamics
- Downside risks persist for precious metals, with narrow trading ranges expected to continue (p. 1).
  - Far East retail buying is offset by sales elsewhere in the region, resulting in a zero-sum game (p. 1).
  - Middle Eastern activity remains subdued with gold trading at a discount (p. 1).
  - India is showing developing interest in both gold and silver, representing 51% of the silver jewelry/silverware sector and 9% of total global offtake (p. 1).
Inflation and Energy Price Influences
- June 2026 headline CPI fell by 0.4%, driven almost entirely by a nearly 6% drop in energy prices (p. 1).
  - This drop is expected to reverse in July 2026 (p. 1).
  - Energy comprised ~8% of the total CPI basket in June, compared to the historical norm of 6-7% (p. 1).
- Crude oil (WTI) prices settled at $84, down 26% from the April 6th high of $113 but up 24% year-over-year (p. 1).
  - Prices could drift toward $70 over the next 12 months if the Middle East war premium unwinds (p. 1).
Monetary Policy and Bond Yields
- The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is divided over future monetary policy ahead of its July 28/29 meeting (p. 2).
  - Roughly 50% of the committee favors further tightening if inflation persists, while the rest prefer to remain steady (p. 2).
  - FOMC member Chris Waller suggested rate hikes may be necessary if inflation remains strong, pointing to tariffs, high energy prices, and AI investments (p. 2).
- The US 10-year bond yield rose from below 4% at the end of February to 4.6%, acting as a headwind for gold and silver (p. 2).
Precious Metals Positioning and ETF Flows
- CFTC positioning for the week ending July 14 showed contrasting trends for gold and silver (p. 2).
  - Gold saw a mildly bullish tone with a 1.5% (6.1t) gain in Managed Money longs and 18.3% (8.3t) of short covering (p. 2).
  - Silver experienced a 9% (280t) drop in outright longs and a 1% (6.2t) rise in outright shorts (p. 2).
- Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) experienced mixed regional flows (p. 2).
  - World Gold Council data to July 10 showed a YTD gold ETF gain of 15t to 4,045t, with North American holdings falling 3% (67t) and Asian holdings rising 16% (68t) (p. 2).
  - Silver ETFs fell by 2,408t YTD to 24,413t, despite late-week bargain hunting picking up 128t (p. 2).
Market Correlations and Price Performance
- Asset correlations showed shifting dynamics (pp. 3-4).
  - The S&P/gold correlation tightened to 0.69, while the S&P/copper correlation remained steady at 0.49 (p. 3).
  - The silver-gold correlation tightened to 0.83, while the silver-copper correlation eased to 0.68 (p. 4).
- Precious metals prices fell week-over-week as of July 20, 2026 (p. 5).
  - Gold (pm LBMA) fell 2.41% to $4,064.89, representing a 6.17% decline YTD (p. 5).
  - Silver (LBMA) fell 5.47% to $58.66, representing a 23.41% decline YTD (p. 5).

Weekly gold and silver round-up, written for retail clients

قارئ تفاعلي

Weekly gold and silver round-up, written for retail clients

قارئ تفاعلي