Gold Price Trends and Market Drivers
- Gold prices experienced a 16% peak-to-trough decline in Q2 2026, falling from $4,674 in April to below $4,000 in late June and early July (p. 1).
- Shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz kept oil prices high, boosting the US dollar and bond yields, which increased the opportunity cost of holding gold (p. 1).
- A shift in market expectations in August, driven by softer economic data, pushed gold prices back to a two-month high of $4,449 on August 13 (p. 1).
Regional Gold Premiums and Discounts
- Hong Kong: Premiums on new kilobars remained within $0.5-0.8/oz for most of Q2 2026 before turning into discounts by mid-July due to weak regional demand and strong imports (p. 3).
- Mainland China: SGE gold price premiums over loco-London narrowed from $15/oz in April to around $10 in May, trading at parity or a small discount in June, before recovering in July (p. 3).
- Singapore: Wholesale premiums eased from $0.30-1.50/oz in early April to $0.20-0.60 in May, eventually falling into discounts of over $0.50/oz by late June through August due to profit-taking and heavy recycled bar inflows (p. 3).
- India: Persistent discounts averaged $35/oz in Q2 2026, reaching a record high of $150 in May following an import duty hike from 6% to 15% on May 13 (p. 5).
  - Unofficial market discounts reached $250-300/oz as unofficial importing became economically viable (p. 5).
  - Demand was further suppressed by a prime ministerial appeal and the inauspicious Adhik Maas period from May 17 to June 15 (p. 5).
- Turkey: Premiums fell to single digits in April, briefly exceeded $60/oz in mid-June, and returned to discounts by mid-July, widening to $30 by August 10 (p. 5).
- Dubai: Bullion remained at a discount throughout Q2 2026, widening to $8-12/oz in July due to weak regional and Indian demand (p. 5).
Regional Gold Trade Flows
- Hong Kong: Gold imports surged 45% y/y to 385t in Q2 2026, driven by inflows from Russia, Australia, and Switzerland, while exports rose 29% y/y to 255t (p. 7).
- Mainland China: Imports jumped 65% y/y to 473t in Q2 2026, with Switzerland, Australia, and Hong Kong supplying 75% of the total (p. 9).
- Singapore: Imports fell 12% q/q to 49t, while exports declined 12% y/y, with Cambodia, China, Thailand, and Malaysia accounting for nearly 70% of exports (p. 11).
- India: Gross gold bullion imports declined 5% y/y to 95t, while doré imports from Peru and Chile jumped nearly 70% y/y (p. 13).
- Turkey: Official gold bullion imports fell sharply by 61% y/y to 24t in Q2 2026, bringing H1 2026 imports to 60t, the lowest first-half level since H1 2015 (p. 15).

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