Gold: From Capitulation to Consolidation
Oleh Ole Sloth Hansen · 9 Juli 2026
Considering what was thrown at gold yesterday - surging oil and fuel prices, hawkish signals from the FOMC minutes, rising yields and traders once again entertaining the possibility of a rate hike - it has actually held up remarkably well. The metal found support ahead of USD 4,050 and has since bounced back above USD 4,100 as the dollar and yields trade softer.
For now, crude remains a key driver of cross-asset pricing, and today's softer tone in oil has also helped gold recover. In fact, despite the sharp rise in oil prices over the past two days, the dollar has traded broadly unchanged, potentially signalling some buying fatigue among traders already holding a very elevated speculative long position.
Overall, the price action over the past 24 hours strengthens my belief that gold has moved from capitulation to consolidation. That view could obviously be challenged if oil prices resume their rise. However, given the recent weakness in US jobs data, I do not think the FOMC will automatically reach for the rate-hike button, even if higher energy prices increase the risk of inflation remaining elevated for longer.
Ole Sloth Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy, Saxo Bank. Republished with permission — LinkedIn.