US Employment and Economic Outlook
- The US Nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 jobs, contrary to expectations of an 80,000+ gain, triggering a sharp rally in gold (above $4,300) and silver (around $64) (p. 1).
- The job loss is considered a potential anomaly, largely driven by a temporary loss of 50,000 local education sector jobs and reduced consumer spending following tax refunds (p. 1).
- Markets are discounting a 50% chance of a September Federal Reserve rate hike, though the Fed may remain on hold for the rest of the year (p. 1).
Technical and Geopolitical Factors
- Gold is trading above its 50-day moving average ($4,153) with resistance at the 200-day average ($4,500), while silver has support at $62 and resistance at $71 (p. 1).
- Geopolitical tensions in the Gulf persist, with Houthi militants claiming an attack on Saudi Arabia's Jazan oil refinery, which supported oil prices and tempered gold's momentum (p. 1).
Physical Demand and Official Sector Activity
- Physical gold demand remains quiet in Southeast Asia and India due to an inauspicious period for weddings, leading regional flows back to Swiss refineries (p. 1).
- The People's Bank of China (PBOC) reported net gold purchases of approximately 20 tonnes last month, though actual official sector buying is believed to be higher (p. 1).
Silver Industrial Demand and Tariffs
- A 15% US tariff on polysilicon products starting December 4 is expected to raise solar electricity costs but is not projected to heavily impact silver (p. 1).
- Silver fabrication demand in the solar sector is expected to fall by about 20% this year due to market oversupply, thrifting, and potential copper substitution (p. 1).
Market Positioning and ETF Flows
- CFTC data for the week ending July 28 showed a shift to net long positions for both gold (407 tonnes) and silver (1,969 tonnes, an eight-week high) (p. 3).
- Gold ETFs saw a weekly gain of 5.4 tonnes as of July 31, bringing year-to-date holdings to 4,068 tonnes, while silver ETFs gained 160 tonnes over the week (p. 3).
- The S&P/gold correlation declined sharply to 0.38, while the silver-gold correlation tightened to 0.83 (p. 5).

Gold and silver roundup written for retail clients; Nonfarm headline number may be misleading

Pembaca interaktif

Lainnya dari StoneX Research