SILVER ALERT: Is the Silver EFP Signaling That Tariff Concerns Are Returning?

A market indicator few investors are watching is starting to move again. Here's why the Silver EFP could be an early warning signal for the next major move in silver.

Insights from Bob Gottlieb — former Managing Director of Precious Metals Trading at leading global financial institutions and author of Mastering Gold and Silver Markets.

While crude oil is down 1.8%, U.S. Treasury yields have eased modestly, and gold and silver are beginning to stabilize, one indicator has quietly caught my attention, the September Silver EFP.

The September Silver EFP widened to approximately 50¢, or about 4.95%, compared with roughly 3.75% in the London OTC market. That suggests the market may be starting to price in the possibility of tariffs on investment-grade silver.

Why does this matter? The last time tariff concerns emerged, the market experienced one of the most dramatic shifts in recent history: Approximately 283 million ounces of silver moved into CME warehouses. London OTC lease rates surged to nearly 30% for 2–3 month maturities. Freely available silver in London reportedly fell to around 150 million ounces, creating significant tightness in the physical market. I'm not suggesting history will repeat itself, but the EFP is one of the best real-time indicators of stress between the futures and physical markets. If concerns over tariffs continue to build, this is a metric I'll be watching very closely. It could become an important catalyst for the next move in silver.