Something is Brewing in Silver

SOMETHING MAJOR IS BREWING IN hashtag#SILVER hashtag#Silver is firmly back on my radar screen, some of what’s happening I understand… and some of it raises more questions than answers. Four days ago, I posted: Silver is starting to move, and positioning is driving it. At the time: Crude was moving lower Risk sentiment was improving Large open interest in SLV calls (70 / 70.50 strikes) Over 150,000 contracts Silver responded explosively Trading around $81, up ~5% on the day Fast forward to today… We’ve now: Blown through the 75 SLV strike Trading +6%+ Approaching $86 July CME futures That is not normal price action What’s driving this? Yes, positioning matters: Those SLV call strikes clearly played a role But here’s where it gets interesting… OTC vs CME – Something doesn’t add up OTC London forwards now very liquid Contango from 1 week → 5 years 1-month OTC ~ 3.25% / 3.75% (vs ~-30% last October) The tightness that drove last year’s move is gone Flows tell the story ~221M oz has moved out of CME warehouses Metal flowing back to London & China Tariff fears? Largely dismissed That should have eased pressure But then look at EFP… Friday close: 51–55 cents (~4.5%) vs OTC ~3.3% Today: Hearing as high as 85 cents Now ~73 cents That’s a massive dislocation So what’s really going on? One explanation: Banks were over-borrowed EFP during tight OTC conditions Now being forced to cover at a loss Possible But… The trader in me says: This feels bigger than just positioning cleanup Questions I’m asking: Are we seeing early signs of tariff risk re-emerging? Is silver’s critical mineral status starting to matter? Are flows shifting ahead of something not yet visible? Bottom line: This move doesn’t fully align with: OTC structure Flow normalization Macro backdrop Which usually means: something else is happening under the surface Would love to hear thoughts from the community: What are we missing? Is this just positioning… or something bigger?

Views are my own, for informational and educational purposes only, and not investment advice.