Navigating Silver’s Surge: 5 Warning Signs After Touching $90

#Silver reached my short-term objective of touching $90 July CME futures… now what? My last few posts suggested something was brewing in silver and the move to $90 happened far faster than many expected. While I remain long-term bullish on precious metals, I’m starting to see some near-term headwinds that could trigger meaningful selloffs and much wider volatility. So, what has changed, and what should we be watching?

Silver implied volatility has surged from roughly 43% to 57% in just a few days, a massive move. Compare that to gold, where implied vol only moved from 22.5% to 22.8% over the same period. That divergence tells you silver’s move is becoming increasingly unstable and speculative.
India’s government, under Modi, moved to protect currency reserves by sharply increasing excise duties on gold and silver from 6% to 15%. Gold is India’s second-largest import after oil, so this matters. Reports suggest gold discounts in India widened to nearly $200/oz following the tax increase, a clear sign of disrupted physical demand.
Silver tariff / EFP uncertainty: uncertainty around whether 1,000-ounce silver bars may be subject to tariffs based on a January 2026 US Customs ruling. That uncertainty caused the silver EFP/arbitrage market to go haywire: EFP moved from roughly 40 cents to 85 cents in days Today now trading back near 55 cents, still elevated relative to OTC economics. There are grey areas surrounding US Customs Section 301 and Section 232 tariffs, and until this is clarified, institutional participants remain uncertain. The customs ruling may ultimately prove erroneous, in which case much of the tariff premium disappears. Timing is everything, and with government bureaucracy, nobody knows when clarity comes.
There was massive open interest in SLV $80–$85 call strikes, helping fuel momentum buying as the market pushed through $80. The real question is: who drove silver through the strike levels and who was willing to sell into the move to those forced to buy and delta-hedge the short call exposure? That created classic upside euphoria. The problem? Retail often enters after the move, creating vulnerable weak-long positioning if momentum reverses.
Physical silver demand appears to be cooling in multiple regions (see India comment above). China’s silver premium appears to have largely evaporated. That’s another signal worth watching closely.

Major takeaway: Long term, my thesis hasn’t changed. The geopolitical backdrop remains highly uncertain, silver remains a critical industrial metal, and structural supply/demand deficits still matter.

Short term? This market feels increasingly stretched. That doesn’t mean the bull move is over, but it does suggest investors should be prepared for violent two-way price action and potentially sharp corrections.

Silver implied volatility has surged from roughly 43% to 57% in just a few days, a massive move. Compare that to gold, where implied vol only moved from 22.5% to 22.8% over the same period. That divergence tells you silver’s move is becoming increasingly unstable and speculative.
India’s government, under Modi, moved to protect currency reserves by sharply increasing excise duties on gold and silver from 6% to 15%. Gold is India’s second-largest import after oil, so this matters. Reports suggest gold discounts in India widened to nearly $200/oz following the tax increase, a clear sign of disrupted physical demand.
Silver tariff / EFP uncertainty: uncertainty around whether 1,000-ounce silver bars may be subject to tariffs based on a January 2026 US Customs ruling. That uncertainty caused the silver EFP/arbitrage market to go haywire: EFP moved from roughly 40 cents to 85 cents in days Today now trading back near 55 cents, still elevated relative to OTC economics. There are grey areas surrounding US Customs Section 301 and Section 232 tariffs, and until this is clarified, institutional participants remain uncertain. The customs ruling may ultimately prove erroneous, in which case much of the tariff premium disappears. Timing is everything, and with government bureaucracy, nobody knows when clarity comes.
There was massive open interest in SLV $80–$85 call strikes, helping fuel momentum buying as the market pushed through $80. The real question is: who drove silver through the strike levels and who was willing to sell into the move to those forced to buy and delta-hedge the short call exposure? That created classic upside euphoria. The problem? Retail often enters after the move, creating vulnerable weak-long positioning if momentum reverses.
Physical silver demand appears to be cooling in multiple regions (see India comment above). China’s silver premium appears to have largely evaporated. That’s another signal worth watching closely.