India & China Premiums
The theoretical gap between local and international gold prices in the world’s two largest consumer markets, expressed in US dollars.
Consumers in the largest markets of China and India base their buying decisions on the local price of gold. These regional prices often deviate from the international price of gold, reflecting local dynamics in those markets.
The World Gold Council publishes this as a time series of the theoretical difference between the international and local gold prices in India and China, expressed in US dollars. It represents a directional and indicative gauge of the market, not a trading metric. To reduce noise in the series, it is shown as a 5-day rolling average, smoothing out short-lived spikes caused by heightened price volatility or irregular data points. The methodology notes for each market are published alongside the data.
Note: In January 2025, the World Gold Council updated its methodology to enhance the accuracy of the Indian gold premium/discount estimates. Consequently, all historical data has been revised to align with this new methodology.
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What sits between the local and the international price
The gap is not one number with one cause. In both markets it combines the mechanical cost of getting metal in — duties, taxes, financing and freight — with the balance between what local buyers want and what local supply can meet. A premium means the local market is paying up for metal. A discount means local metal is cheaper than importing it, which usually points to weak demand, heavy recycling, or supply arriving outside the official duty-paid route.
- India
- India imports almost all the gold it consumes, so the duty-paid landed cost sets the floor under the local price: import duty plus GST on top of the international price converted at the rupee rate. Around that floor, dealer premiums swing with the wedding and festival calendar — Akshaya Tritiya and the Dhanteras–Diwali window are the two demand peaks — and with the rupee. Discounts appear when a price rally stalls buying and pushes recycled jewellery back onto the market, or when unofficial imports undercut duty-paid metal. A change to the import duty itself shifts the whole series.
- China
- China’s local benchmark is the Shanghai Gold Exchange, where standard bars trade in yuan per gram. Bullion imports run through banks holding quotas issued by the People’s Bank of China, so the Shanghai premium doubles as a read on how binding those quotas are: a wide premium means importers are bidding for metal that quota cannot yet deliver, and it usually pulls bullion out of London and Switzerland within weeks. A discount signals the opposite — domestic supply running ahead of demand, often before metal is re-exported. Retail buying concentrates around Lunar New Year.
How to read the series
- Direction over level. Both series are theoretical constructions rather than dealer quotes, so the signal is the move — a premium widening, a discount deepening — not the exact dollar figure on any one day.
- The 5-day average hides the spike. Smoothing strips single-day noise out of volatile sessions and irregular data points, so a genuine one-day dislocation shows up muted and a few days late. Read it as a trend gauge.
- Cross-check against physical flows. A sustained Chinese or Indian premium should show up downstream — in Swiss and UK export data, in SGE withdrawals, in London vault holdings. When the premium moves and the flows do not, treat the premium as noise.
Frequently asked questions
- What does a gold premium or discount actually mean?
- It is the difference between the price of gold inside a consuming market and the international price, in US dollars. A premium means local buyers are paying more than the world price, typically when demand outruns the metal that has cleared import channels. A discount means the local price sits below the world price, typically when demand is weak, recycled supply is heavy, or metal reached the market outside official duty-paid routes.
- Why is a 5-day rolling average used?
- Daily readings pick up short-lived spikes caused by heightened price volatility and by irregular data points on either leg of the calculation. A five-day rolling average smooths those out so the series reflects the direction of local demand rather than one noisy session. The trade-off is lag: a genuine dislocation appears damped and a few days late.
- Can I trade on the India or China premium?
- No. The World Gold Council describes it as a directional and indicative gauge of the market, not a trading metric. It is a theoretical difference between two published prices: it does not carry the duty, financing, freight, insurance and quota access a real arbitrage would have to pay, and the two legs are not simultaneously executable.
Source and methodology
Source: World Gold Council, Goldhub — gold premium/discount for India and China, expressed in US dollars and updated weekly, with daily history from 2003 for China and 2012 for India. WatchGold links to the Goldhub series rather than republishing it; the downloadable data and the per-market methodology notes are available there. In January 2025 the WGC revised the Indian methodology and restated the full history on that basis.