10-Year TIPS Yield (US Real Yield)
Daily market yield on 10-year US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (FRED series DFII10) — the market's real, inflation-adjusted interest rate. Real yields set the opportunity cost of holding gold: falling or negative real yields tend to support it, rising real yields weigh on it.
Latest: 2.41%0 bp(2026-07-30)
8/3/2026, 5:57:01 PM
About this data
The 10-year TIPS yield is the market yield on US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities with a 10-year constant maturity — the closest thing markets have to a directly observable real (inflation-adjusted) interest rate. TIPS principal is indexed to CPI, so the quoted yield strips inflation compensation out of the nominal rate. For gold, which pays no coupon, the real yield is the opportunity cost of holding it: deeply negative real yields accompanied the 2020 gold highs, while the sharp rise in real yields through 2022 weighed on the metal.
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), series DFII10 — Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Inflation-Indexed. Published each business day; WatchGold syncs shortly after FRED updates, so the latest point can lag by one to two business days.
Frequently asked questions
- What is the 10-year TIPS yield?
- It is the yield on 10-year US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. Because TIPS principal adjusts with CPI inflation, the yield is a real yield: roughly the 10-year nominal Treasury yield minus expected inflation (the breakeven rate).
- Why do real yields matter for gold?
- Gold pays no interest, so its main holding cost is the real return forgone on safe bonds. When real yields fall — and especially when they turn negative — that opportunity cost shrinks or disappears and gold tends to rally. The 10-year TIPS yield is the most widely watched single macro driver of the gold price.
- Is the TIPS yield the same as the nominal Treasury yield?
- No. The nominal 10-year yield includes compensation for expected inflation; the TIPS yield does not. The gap between the two is the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, the bond market's inflation forecast. A rising nominal yield driven purely by inflation expectations is far less damaging to gold than a rising real yield.