Research

The Metals Focus Gold Peer Group Analysis shows the world's leading gold miners generated record free cash flow of US$25.8bn in 2025 — nearly three times the US$9.2bn of 2024 — as a Q4.25 weighted-average gold price of US$4,120/oz against cash costs of US$1,323/oz delivered the highest operating margin in the 15 years of the study. With production easing to 6.3Moz in Q4.25 (from over 7.0Moz two years earlier), the gains reflect stronger prices rather than higher output. Management teams stayed disciplined: capital expenditure rose to US$682/oz, exploration spending increased, the peer group swung from US$15.3bn net debt to US$6.3bn net cash, dividends more than tripled to US$3.0bn, and reserve life held near 20 years. Despite record profitability, valuations remain subdued at 5.4x EV/EBITDA versus more than 7x in early 2023.

Following a 9% gold import-duty hike on 13 May, India's Directorate General of Foreign Trade tightened the Advance Authorisation (AA) scheme that lets exporters import gold duty-free — imposing a 100kg cap per authorisation, issuing new licences only after 50% of export obligations are met, and adding compliance requirements. Duty Drawback Scheme exporters also face higher working-capital needs as banks now pass on IGST. Combined with US tariffs and the Middle East conflict weighing on key destinations (UAE 55%, US 22%), Metals Focus expects Indian gold jewellery exports — already an estimated 62t in 2025, down 25% y/y — to fall to their lowest level since 2015 (excluding COVID-hit 2020).