China's gold - do the numbers add up? — StoneX Research · Expert Insights

Developments in Asian Gold Markets
- Hong Kong is trialling gold clearing in partnership with the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) to compete with Singapore as a key trading hub (p. 2).
  - The SGE approved the Hong Kong Precious Metals Central Clearing Company as an international member to facilitate gold settlement (p. 2).
  - Hong Kong is considering a new RMB-denominated gold futures contract and tax incentives for gold trading (p. 2).
- China has raised the permissible level of local investment in offshore Hong Kong bonds by 60%, increasing quotas from nearly $75 billion to $118 billion (pp. 1-2).
China's Official Gold Reserves and Discrepancies
- The People's Bank of China (PBoC) reported gold holdings of 2,346 tonnes in June 2026, valued at over $300 billion (p. 2).
  - Gold accounted for 8.8% of combined gold and foreign exchange reserves in May 2026, down from 9.6% in January 2026 (p. 2).
- Analysis suggests a potential discrepancy of over 3,000 tonnes of unaccounted-for gold in China (p. 2).
  - From 2015 to 2025, there was a cumulative supply surplus over demand of 3,862 tonnes (p. 3).
  - If this entire surplus were held in China's official reserves, gold would represent 19.5% of its combined gold and foreign exchange reserves at current prices (p. 3).
Precious Metals Supply and Demand Balances
- Gold: Total supply is projected to rise to 5,230 tonnes in 2026, while total demand is forecasted to fall to 3,583 tonnes, leaving a residual balance of 1,647 tonnes (p. 5).
- Silver: Total supply is forecasted at 33,169 tonnes for 2026, with total demand (including investment and ETPs) projected at 30,637 tonnes (p. 6).
- Platinum: Total supply is projected to decrease slightly from 7,334,000 ounces in 2022 to 7,323,000 ounces in 2027, with a physical surplus of 352,000 ounces expected in 2027 (p. 7).
- Palladium: Total supply is forecasted to reach 10,393,000 ounces in 2027, with a projected physical surplus of 637,000 ounces (p. 8).

Developments in Asian Gold Markets
- Hong Kong is trialling gold clearing in partnership with the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) to compete with Singapore as a key trading hub (p. 2).
  - The SGE approved the Hong Kong Precious Metals Central Clearing Company as an international member to facilitate gold settlement (p. 2).
  - Hong Kong is considering a new RMB-denominated gold futures contract and tax incentives for gold trading (p. 2).
- China has raised the permissible level of local investment in offshore Hong Kong bonds by 60%, increasing quotas from nearly $75 billion to $118 billion (pp. 1-2).
China's Official Gold Reserves and Discrepancies
- The People's Bank of China (PBoC) reported gold holdings of 2,346 tonnes in June 2026, valued at over $300 billion (p. 2).
  - Gold accounted for 8.8% of combined gold and foreign exchange reserves in May 2026, down from 9.6% in January 2026 (p. 2).
- Analysis suggests a potential discrepancy of over 3,000 tonnes of unaccounted-for gold in China (p. 2).
  - From 2015 to 2025, there was a cumulative supply surplus over demand of 3,862 tonnes (p. 3).
  - If this entire surplus were held in China's official reserves, gold would represent 19.5% of its combined gold and foreign exchange reserves at current prices (p. 3).
Precious Metals Supply and Demand Balances
- Gold: Total supply is projected to rise to 5,230 tonnes in 2026, while total demand is forecasted to fall to 3,583 tonnes, leaving a residual balance of 1,647 tonnes (p. 5).
- Silver: Total supply is forecasted at 33,169 tonnes for 2026, with total demand (including investment and ETPs) projected at 30,637 tonnes (p. 6).
- Platinum: Total supply is projected to decrease slightly from 7,334,000 ounces in 2022 to 7,323,000 ounces in 2027, with a physical surplus of 352,000 ounces expected in 2027 (p. 7).
- Palladium: Total supply is forecasted to reach 10,393,000 ounces in 2027, with a projected physical surplus of 637,000 ounces (p. 8).

China's gold - do the numbers add up?

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China's gold - do the numbers add up?

Interactive reader