Gold & Silver Market News — Apr 13, 2026, 12:10–16:10 UTC
US-Iran Conflict Escalation Drives Safe-Haven Demand
Diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran have collapsed, leading to a significant escalation in Middle East tensions. The US has pledged to enforce a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters in the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea, with Iran criticizing these blockade intentions. This geopolitical crisis has triggered renewed safe-haven demand across markets, with oil prices jumping above key levels and risk sentiment deteriorating globally.
Hungarian Election Results Strengthen Forint
Hungary's election delivered a decisive victory for Péter Magyar's pro-EU Tisza party over Viktor Orban's Fidesz, earning a supermajority that eases political transition risks. The election outcome has significantly boosted the Hungarian Forint, with EUR/HUF dropping to its lowest levels since February 2022 as investor confidence improves. Banks note this political shift opens scope for structural reforms and reduces concerns about future EU budget negotiations and Ukraine aid, though the broader Euro has failed to benefit from these developments.
Silver Prices Under Pressure Amid Risk-Off Sentiment
Silver prices declined on Monday, falling 1.75% to trade around $74.47 per troy ounce from Friday's close of $75.79. The precious metal hit session lows near $72.61 before recovering slightly to hover above the $74.00 level, with technical analysts noting that bullish momentum appears to be fading. The decline comes amid the broader risk-off environment triggered by escalating Middle East tensions.
Central Bank Policy Expectations Shift
Market participants are increasingly pricing in more aggressive monetary policy tightening from major central banks. Traders now assign a 70% probability to a third ECB rate hike by December, with Societe Generale economists arguing that upside risks to Eurozone core inflation justify bringing forward European Central Bank rate increases. Higher energy prices stemming from the Iran conflict are also boosting expectations for Bank of Japan tightening measures, while Norway's inflation data came in slightly below consensus at 3.0% year-on-year for core CPI.
Currency Markets React to Geopolitical Tensions
Major currency pairs are experiencing mixed trading as investors navigate the conflicting forces of geopolitical risk and monetary policy expectations. The US Dollar Index has rebounded to near 99.00 as higher oil prices prompt concerns about more hawkish Federal Reserve policy, while the Japanese Yen remains weak against the USD despite intervention fears keeping USD/JPY below the 160.00 psychological level. The Australian Dollar and Pound Sterling are both underperforming against the greenback, with risk aversion weighing on commodity-linked and risk-sensitive currencies.
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