US-Iran Tensions Create Market Uncertainty

Geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran remain a primary focus for markets, contributing to uncertainty for risk assets. Conflicting reports have emerged, with Pakistan urging an extension of a ceasefire while the US has noted numerous violations and maintained that military options are ready, even as a potential deal is discussed. This backdrop is being monitored as a key driver for safe-haven assets, with some analysts noting the path of the conflict could influence the next major move in gold.

Strong US Data and Fed Speculation Pressure Metals

Precious metals faced headwinds following the release of stronger-than-expected US Retail Sales data for March, which provided support for the US dollar. Market attention was also directed toward the Federal Reserve, with the Senate confirmation hearing for nominee Kevin Warsh drawing scrutiny for its potential impact on the central bank's leadership and future policy framework. Warsh’s reported calls for a "regime change" at the Fed have added a layer of uncertainty to the monetary policy outlook.

Gold and Silver Prices Decline

Both gold and silver prices traded with a negative bias as investors weighed the impact of robust US economic indicators against ongoing geopolitical risks. Gold slipped as markets awaited further clarity on both US-Iran talks and Federal Reserve policy, while silver also declined ahead of the closely watched confirmation hearing for Fed nominee Kevin Warsh. Analysts noted that investors seemed hesitant to take aggressive positions amid the competing bullish and bearish narratives.

Varied Outlooks from Global Central Banks

Central bank activity outside the US presented a mixed economic picture, influencing foreign exchange markets. In Canada, recent inflation data was viewed as keeping the Bank of Canada in a cautious stance, while New Zealand's hotter-than-expected CPI print boosted its currency. Meanwhile, political uncertainty and shifting expectations for Bank of England rate cuts are shaping the outlook for the Pound Sterling, and South Africa's central bank highlighted persistent upside inflation risks.