Gold Peer Group Analysis Q2.26

Production and Cost Statistics

• Equivalent gold production for the peer group rose 1% quarter-on-quarter to 6.6Moz, but fell 5% year-on-year, continuing a long-term decline in industry output (p. 4, p. 6).
  • Sibanye-Stillwater recorded the strongest quarterly production increase at 25% q/q, while Solidcore Resources saw the largest decline at 31% q/q (p. 6).
  • Newmont remains the largest gold producer in the peer group, followed by Barrick Mining (p. 6).
• Average co-product cash costs rose to US$1,534/oz, representing a 6% q/q and 22% y/y increase (p. 7).
  • Agnico Eagle reported the lowest unit cash cost at US$1,129/oz, while Sibanye-Stillwater reported the highest at US$2,647/oz (p. 7).
• All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) increased to US$2,042/oz, up 7% q/q and 22% y/y due to sustaining capex, labor, and energy pressures (p. 4, p. 8).
  • Agnico Eagle achieved the lowest AISC at US$1,543/oz, whereas Sibanye-Stillwater remained the highest-cost producer at US$2,855/oz (p. 8).
• Shareholder cash costs reached US$3,380/oz, up 3% q/q and 35% y/y, leaving a positive cash margin of US$1,030/oz (p. 12).
  • B2Gold recorded the highest shareholder cash cost at US$5,032/oz, while Newmont recorded the lowest at US$2,906/oz (p. 12).

Producer Margins and Profitability

• The weighted average gold price received by the peer group was US$4,410/oz, down 8% q/q but up 35% y/y (p. 4, p. 17).
  • Gold Fields received the highest average price at US$4,505/oz, while B2Gold received the lowest at US$3,767/oz (p. 17).
• Estimated EBITDA for the peer group declined by 11% q/q, though margins remained historically high (p. 4, p. 18).
  • Sibanye-Stillwater was the only producer to report higher EBITDA, which increased by 130% q/q (p. 18).
  • The average estimated EBITDA margin fell three percentage points to 63%, while the EBITDA less stay-in-business capex margin fell five percentage points to 55% (p. 19).

Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow

• Total capital expenditure rose to US$5.2bn, representing a 29% q/q and 30% y/y increase, equivalent to US$687/oz (p. 22).
  • Unitised stay-in-business capex rose 18% q/q to US$366/oz, and unitised project capex rose 40% q/q to US$377/oz (p. 22).
  • Harmony spent the highest unitised total capex at US$1,520/oz, while Newmont spent the lowest at US$492/oz (p. 23).
• Cash flow from operations after total capex declined 32% q/q to US$6.8bn, though it was 28% higher y/y (p. 4, p. 27).
  • Newmont generated the highest cash flow after total capex at US$2.2bn, and B2Gold was the only company that failed to generate positive after-tax cash flow (p. 27).
  • Estimated dividends as a percentage of net operating cash flow rose slightly to 17% (p. 28).

Balance Sheet Strength and Share Buybacks

• The peer group's net cash position increased to over US$11.4bn, marking a significant turnaround from the net debt peak of US$32.2bn in Q2.13 (p. 4, p. 30).
  • Newmont held the largest net cash position at US$3.9bn, followed by Agnico Eagle at US$3.3bn (p. 31).
  • Sibanye-Stillwater held the highest net debt in the peer group at US$875m (p. 31).
• Companies continued to utilize surplus cash for share buybacks to boost shareholder returns (p. 34).
  • Newmont reported US$7.6bn of share repurchases since February 2024, and Barrick Mining authorized an additional US$3.0bn in Q2.26 (p. 34).

Investor Returns and Market Ratios

• The weighted average share price fell 18% q/q but rose 49% over the past 12 months, outperforming the gold price's 22% annual gain (p. 39).
  • Solidcore Resources recorded the largest quarterly share price increase (+7%) and was up 114% over the past 12 months (p. 39).
• Valuation multiples remained low despite strong balance sheets and high profitability (p. 4).
  • The Enterprise Value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio decreased to 4.6, close to the lowest level recorded since 2009 (p. 4, p. 42).
  • The average free cash flow yield remained steady at 10.3%, well above the 14-year average of 6.9% (p. 44).
  • The average dividend yield was 2.6%, with Sibanye-Stillwater offering the highest yield among dividend-paying companies (p. 45).
• Equivalent gold reserve life for the peer group improved to 22 years (p. 48).
  • Barrick Mining holds the largest level of reserves relative to production, while B2Gold, AngloGold Ashanti, and Kinross hold the lowest (p. 48).