Turkey's gold jewellery industry is facing deepening pressures from weak export orders, rising production costs, and declining competitiveness (p. 1).
- Fabrication and export challenges have severely impacted production (p. 1).
  - Turkish gold jewellery fabrication contracted by 47% y/y in Q1.26 and remained 16% lower y/y in Q2 (p. 1).
  - Export orders are down across major markets due to disruptions from the Iran conflict and US tariff pressures (p. 1).
  - High domestic inflation and limited lira depreciation have raised production costs, making Turkish labor charges comparable to those of Italian manufacturers (p. 1).
- Operational strains and shifting domestic demand are reshaping the local market (p. 3).
  - Factories are experiencing shorter working hours, headcount reductions, lower capacity utilization, and cashflow pressures (p. 3).
  - Domestic jewellery consumption fell by 23% y/y in Q1 before recovering slightly in Q2, though Q2 demand remained 10% lower y/y (p. 3).
  - Consumers are shifting to lower-carat jewellery, with 8-carat pieces now accounting for roughly 15% of the market compared to 5% in 2022 (p. 3).
  - Full-year gold jewellery fabrication is forecast to fall by 25% to 76t in 2026, down from 156t in 2023 (p. 5).
Turkish gold physical investment and bullion premiums have experienced significant volatility (p. 3, p. 5).
- Investment demand has cooled after a strong start to the year (p. 3, p. 5).
  - Heavy demand for small bars and coins early in 2026 pushed local premiums to $300–400/oz (p. 5).
  - Physical investment lost momentum in Q2 and summer due to gold's retreat from record highs, attractive lira savings returns, and squeezed household finances (p. 5).
  - Weaker demand left Turkey's 14t monthly import quota increasingly unused, pushing local premiums into a discount in July and Q3 (p. 5).
  - Bargain hunting as gold approached $4,000 brought the local market back to a premium by late September (p. 5).
  - Physical investment is projected to rise by 12% to around 80t in 2026, supported by the strong start to the year (p. 5).
Global precious metals markets showed mixed movements (p. 1).
- Key metals experienced price and holding adjustments (p. 1).
  - Gold briefly slipped below $4,100 as FOMC minutes signaled a further rate hike before year-end (p. 1).
  - The gold:silver ratio jumped above 70, its highest level since end-July (p. 1).
  - Global Platinum ETP holdings fell to a two-month low of 2,998koz (p. 1).
  - CME managed money net short positions for palladium jumped to 796koz, their highest since May 2025 (p. 1).

Turkey’s gold market: jewellery pressures deepen as investment demand cools

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