Regional Consumer Confidence Trends (p. 2)
- None of the three analyzed regions (Europe, the US, and China) have recovered from their respective economic shocks (p. 2).
- Eurozone: Experienced a sharp drop from March to September 2022 due to the invasion of Ukraine and the energy crisis, followed by a peak in October 2024 and subsequent weakness from the start of Gulf hostilities (p. 2).
- United States: Saw an early 2022 decline driven by inflation fears, a series low point in April 2025 revolving around tariff concerns, and further pressure from subsequent geopolitical events (p. 2).
- China: Suffered a precipitous fall at the start of 2022 due to COVID-19, with subsequent confidence remaining in a narrow band that reflects a lack of recovery to pre-pandemic levels (p. 2).
Bloomberg US Economic Survey (September 2026) (pp. 1, 3)
- The probability of a US recession was reduced to 20% from 25% (p. 3).
- 2026 Forecast Adjustments:
  - Real GDP forecast was raised to 2.2% from 2.1% (p. 3).
  - Government spending was halved to +0.4% from 0.8% (p. 3).
  - Private investment was raised to 3.9% from 3.5% (p. 3).
  - Exports were reduced to 3.8% from 4.9%, while imports were raised to 3.3% from 3.2% (p. 3).
- 2027 Forecast Adjustments:
  - Core PCE expectations were raised to 2.6% from 2.5% (p. 1, p. 3).
  - Private investment was raised to 4.7% from 3.9% (p. 3).
  - Government spending was raised to 1.2% from 1.1% (p. 3).
Bloomberg China Economic Survey (September 2026) (p. 4)
- The probability of a recession was reduced from 30% to 15% (p. 4).
- The 2026 GDP forecast was revised down to 4.6% from 4.8% (p. 4).
- Industrial Production (IP) was cut to 5.1 from 5.4, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was cut to 1.0 from 1.1 (p. 4).
- The budget deficit underwent a major revision from -9.2 to -5.4 (p. 4).
Bloomberg Western Europe Economic Survey (September 2026) (p. 5)
- The potential for a September rate hike was priced at 39% (p. 5).
- 2026 Forecasts: CPI remained steady at 2.6%, unemployment held at 6.4%, and the Central Bank rate was adjusted to 2.76% from 2.57% (p. 5).
- 2027 Forecasts: GDP was raised to 2.3% from 2.2%, CPI was raised to 2.3% from 2.2%, and the Central Bank rate was raised to 2.58% from 2.38% (p. 5).
Key Global Market and Precious Metals Highlights (pp. 7-8)
- Recent economic indicators showed EU inflation at 3.2% and a 25-point FOMC rate hike (p. 7).
- Gold in LBMA vaults rose by 98t in August and 526t year-to-date, while silver rose by 218t in July and 614t year-to-date (p. 8).

EU US China Economic Survey; key changes, consumer sentiment

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