Gold and silver roundup written for retail clients; Nonfarm headline number may be misleading
By StoneX · August 11, 2026
- US Employment and Economic Outlook
- The US Nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 jobs, contrary to expectations of an 80,000+ gain, triggering a sharp rally in gold (above $4,300) and silver (around $64) (p. 1).
- The job loss is considered a potential anomaly, largely driven by a temporary loss of 50,000 local education sector jobs and reduced consumer spending following tax refunds (p. 1).
- Markets are discounting a 50% chance of a September Federal Reserve rate hike, though the Fed may remain on hold for the rest of the year (p. 1).
- Technical and Geopolitical Factors
- Gold is trading above its 50-day moving average ($4,153) with resistance at the 200-day average ($4,500), while silver has support at $62 and resistance at $71 (p. 1).
- Geopolitical tensions in the Gulf persist, with Houthi militants claiming an attack on Saudi Arabia's Jazan oil refinery, which supported oil prices and tempered gold's momentum (p. 1).
- Physical Demand and Official Sector Activity
- Physical gold demand remains quiet in Southeast Asia and India due to an inauspicious period for weddings, leading regional flows back to Swiss refineries (p. 1).
- The People's Bank of China (PBOC) reported net gold purchases of approximately 20 tonnes last month, though actual official sector buying is believed to be higher (p. 1).
- Silver Industrial Demand and Tariffs
- A 15% US tariff on polysilicon products starting December 4 is expected to raise solar electricity costs but is not projected to heavily impact silver (p. 1).
- Silver fabrication demand in the solar sector is expected to fall by about 20% this year due to market oversupply, thrifting, and potential copper substitution (p. 1).
- Market Positioning and ETF Flows
- CFTC data for the week ending July 28 showed a shift to net long positions for both gold (407 tonnes) and silver (1,969 tonnes, an eight-week high) (p. 3).
- Gold ETFs saw a weekly gain of 5.4 tonnes as of July 31, bringing year-to-date holdings to 4,068 tonnes, while silver ETFs gained 160 tonnes over the week (p. 3).
- The S&P/gold correlation declined sharply to 0.38, while the silver-gold correlation tightened to 0.83 (p. 5).