US Debt and Bond Market Developments
- US national debt has reached critical levels, impacting bond and gold markets (p. 9).
  - US debt exceeded $40 trillion for the first time on August 18, 2026, and is close to the statutory limit of $41.1 trillion (p. 9).
  - The US Treasury is doubling its liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated nominal coupon securities to at least $4 billion per operation from September 9 through November 4, 2026 (p. 9).
- Yield curves show varying pressures across different maturities (p. 10).
  - While 30-year bonds are not literally underwater, 5-year and 10-year yields are (p. 10).
Federal Reserve Policy and Jackson Hole Symposium
- July Fed Minutes indicated a palpable shift towards a more restrictive monetary policy (p. 16).
  - Staff highlighted notable financial vulnerabilities, including hedge fund leverage near all-time highs and equity premiums comparable to the dot-com bubble (p. 16).
  - No meeting participants advocated for an interest rate cut, and several favored a 25-basis-point increase (p. 16).
- Central bankers are gathering for the Jackson Hole symposium (p. 14).
  - The event's theme is "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy," with Kevin Warsh and Isabel Schnabel as key confirmed speakers (p. 14).
  - Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin noted that a September rate hike is a "close call" and warned of a future reckoning if debt continues to expand (p. 15).
Corporate Activity in the Platinum Sector
- Northam Platinum has become the target of potential acquisition interest (p. 12).
  - The company received an unsolicited, exploratory, and non-binding approach from a South African platinum major for a potential asset-level or corporate transaction (p. 12).
  - The Board is initiating a strategic, competitive process to solicit proposals and has appointed One Capital Ltd as its exclusive corporate adviser (p. 12).
Global Economic Surveys and PMI Divergence
- Economic outlooks are diverging across major global regions (pp. 22-24).
  - The Bloomberg US Economic Survey raised the 2026 GDP forecast to 2.2% (p. 23), while the China Economic Survey raised the probability of a Chinese recession from 20% to 30% (p. 24).
  - In China, 16 out of 18 economic indicators fell in July compared to June, though high-tech and green industries ("new-trio") remain robust and are estimated to account for 18.4% of GDP in 2025 (pp. 19-20).
  - August manufacturing PMIs showed global divergence, with Germany jumping to a multi-year high of 54.1 and the Eurozone reaching 52.8, while India's manufacturing PMI softened to 52.9 (p. 22).
Precious Metals and Geopolitical Dynamics
- Precious metals are reacting to geopolitical tensions and financial uncertainty (pp. 11, 36).
  - Gold and silver prices have been boosted by uncertainty over US finances and potential escalation in the Gulf (p. 11).
  - The Bank of England continues to freeze 31 tonnes of Venezuelan gold reserves (valued at $4.3 billion) because the UK government does not recognize the current Venezuelan administration (p. 36).
- Year-to-date performance of precious metals shows mixed results (p. 38).
  - Gold is up 6.8% and the US Dollar Index (DXY) is up 0.5%, while silver is down 4.3%, platinum is down 13.1%, and palladium is down 18.2% (p. 38).
Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) and Holdings
- Gold ETPs saw continued buying interest, adding 47 tonnes in the week ending August 21 to reach a total of 4,161 tonnes (p. 40).
  - North America was the most active region, adding 30 tonnes (1.5%), while Europe added 14 tonnes and Asia added 2 tonnes (p. 40).
- Silver ETPs experienced a revival with net weekly gains of 184 tonnes (just under 1%) to reach 24,942 tonnes, despite a year-to-date net loss of 2,072 tonnes (p. 40).
- Platinum holdings saw small monthly gains to reach 88.0 tonnes, representing a year-to-date loss of 15.3 tonnes or 15% (p. 40).
- Palladium holdings gained 0.7 tonnes to reach 31.3 tonnes amid light intermittent long activity and bargain hunting (p. 40).
Commitments of Traders (CFTC)
- Gold CFTC figures for the week to August 18 showed a 19-tonne (4%) gain in outright Managed Money longs and a 6-tonne (18%) increase in shorts during a period of consolidation around $4,350 (p. 41).
- Silver saw reductions on both sides, with longs down 68 tonnes (2%) and shorts down 149 tonnes (11%), bringing net longs to 1,921 tonnes (p. 41).
- Platinum net longs dropped from 12.0 tonnes to 11.2 tonnes, driven by a 2% (0.5t) drop in longs and an 11% (1.3%) rise in shorts (p. 41).
- Palladium experienced a small contraction on both sides, with longs falling 10% (1.3t) and shorts falling 0.7% (0.2t), resulting in a net short of -16.5 tonnes (p. 41).
CME and LBMA Vault Inventories
- CME inventories remained steady, with silver nudging higher to 10,506 tonnes, gold at 831 tonnes, and platinum and palladium flat at 12 tonnes and 8 tonnes respectively (p. 42).
- LBMA vaulted gold rose by 70 tonnes in July (up 428 tonnes year-to-date), while vaulted silver rose by 428 tonnes in July (up 395 tonnes year-to-date) (p. 43).
Precious Metals Supply and Demand Balances
- Gold total supply is projected at 5,230 tonnes for 2026f (including 3,720 tonnes of mine supply), while total demand is projected at 3,583 tonnes, leaving a balance of 1,647 tonnes (p. 45).
- Silver total supply is projected at 33,550 tonnes for 2027f, with total demand projected at 29,376 tonnes, resulting in a balance of 7,174 tonnes (p. 46).
- Platinum total supply is projected at 7,428 thousand ounces for 2027f, with total demand at 6,890 thousand ounces, leaving a physical surplus of 538 thousand ounces (p. 47).
- Palladium total supply is projected at 9,487 thousand ounces for 2027f, while total demand is projected at 9,829 thousand ounces, resulting in a physical deficit of 343 thousand ounces (p. 48).

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