StoneX gold and silver round-up, written for retail clients
By StoneX · July 28, 2026
- Market Outlook and Macroeconomic Factors
- Gold and silver are expected to remain in narrow trading ranges, with downside risks continuing to loom in the background (p. 1).
- The US 10-year bond yield eased to 4.3% alongside a drop in oil prices, but it remains higher than at the end of February and continues to act as a headwind for precious metals (pp. 1-2).
- The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to keep interest rates on hold at its July meeting while maintaining a hawkish stance, with the swaps market pricing in a 31% chance of a July hike and a 68% chance for September (p. 1).
- New US S.301 tariffs are coming into play following the expiration of S.122 tariffs, imposing a 10% tariff on 14 countries (including Canada, the UK, and the EU) and 12.5% on 45 others due to forced labor concerns, while Brazil faces a proposed 25% tariff (p. 1).
- Precious Metals Demand and Industrial Trends
- Retail investment activity remains quiet, with Dubai trading at a $100 (2%) discount to loco London and the Shanghai premium slipping toward neutral (p. 1).
- Silver fabrication in solar cells is projected to drop by 19% this year to an 18% market share (down from 20% or 5,804t in 2025) due to oversupply and substitution efforts, such as the use of copper paste (p. 1).
- Investor Positioning and ETF Flows
- CFTC data for the week ending July 21 shows gold Managed Money outright longs rose 3.3% to 440t (10% below the 12-month moving average), while silver outright longs rose 3.7% to 2,926t and outright shorts jumped 14.4% to 135.1t (p. 2).
- Gold ETFs recorded a minor year-to-date gain of 15t to 4,044t as of July 17, with North American holdings falling 3% (69t) and Asian holdings rising 15% (66t) (pp. 2-3).
- Silver ETFs dropped by 2,408t year-to-date to 24,413t, despite late-week bargain hunting that picked up 128t (p. 3).
- Market Correlations and Price Performance
- The S&P/gold correlation tightened to 0.69, while the silver-gold correlation remained steady at 0.83 (p. 4).
- As of July 27, 2026, the PM LBMA gold price stood at $4,016.02 (down 7.30% year-to-date) and the LBMA silver price was at $58.66 (down 23.41% year-to-date) (p. 6).