Geopolitics, Trade, and AI Governance
- The US-China bilateral trade truce was extended to January 10, 2027, while trade tensions escalated between the US and Canada, leading Canada to impose levies of 15% to 50% on US goods (p. 12, p. 15).
- UN meetings revealed a consensus on the need for frontier AI guardrails, but nations diverged on governance models (pp. 13-14).
  - A 22-nation declaration requiring human oversight for AI was not signed by the US, UK, and China (p. 14).
  - US President Trump rejected coordinated global governance, calling globalist schemes a threat to growth (p. 14).
Monetary Policy and Central Banking
- The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16, 2026, prompting hawkish FOMC speeches warning of persistent inflation risks (p. 16).
- The European Central Bank (ECB) amended its monetary policy guidelines to tighten risk controls, effective November 30 (p. 28).
  - Potential contenders for the next ECB President include Klaas Knot, Pablo Hernández de Cos, Joachim Nagel, and Nadia Calviño (p. 29).
Global Economic Outlook and PMIs
- The OECD projected global GDP growth of 2.9% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027, with G20 headline inflation expected to rise to 4.1% in 2026 before easing to 3.6% in 2027 (p. 18, p. 20).
- Regional growth forecasts for 2026 were adjusted, raising the US GDP forecast to 2.2% and lowering China's to 4.6% (p. 25, p. 26).
- August Global PMI data showed divergence across regions (p. 31).
  - Manufacturing expanded in Germany (54.1), the Eurozone (52.8), and Japan (55.1) (p. 31).
  - India's manufacturing sector softened to a PMI of 52.9, its weakest performance since August 2021 (p. 31).
Precious Metals and Market Dynamics
- Year-to-date performance from January 2025 showed a 3.0% rise in the US Dollar (DXY) but declines across major precious metals, including a 4.0% drop in gold and a 15.0% drop in silver (p. 43).
- Gold holdings saw divergent movements across exchanges and funds (p. 23, p. 44).
  - COMEX gold inventories fell by 14.7% to 726.5t as of September 25, driven by the de-listing of the Gold Enhanced Delivery Contract (p. 23, p. 44).
  - Gold ETPs added 12.7t to reach 3,135.2t (p. 23, p. 44).
- Silver holdings experienced steady builds, with COMEX silver stocks rising by 78t and silver ETPs adding 164t (p. 44).
- Supply and demand forecasts for 2026 project a gold surplus of 1,647 tonnes, while platinum and palladium are expected to face physical deficits of 60 thousand ounces and 306 thousand ounces, respectively (p. 50, p. 52, p. 53).

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