Gold and Silver Price Volatility and Drivers
- Gold and silver ended the week nearly unchanged but experienced volatile trading ranges (3.3% for gold, 2.6% for silver) driven by shifting expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike on September 16 (p. 1).
- Hawkish comments from Chair Warsh on August 28 raised rate hike expectations, causing gold to ease to $4,431 on August 31, though gold still closed August up 9.6% (p. 1).
- A global bond sell-off on September 1 pushed gold down to a two-week low of $4,375 and silver down 2.7% to $64.8, with gold hitting a low of $4,336 on September 2 (p. 1).
- Dovish remarks from Governor Waller on September 3 reversed the slide, lifting gold ~2% to near $4,480 and silver 2.4% to $66.4, aided by safe-haven bids from Middle East strikes (p. 1).
- A massive non-farm payrolls beat on September 4 (162,000 vs. 53,000 consensus) initially pressured metals, but a surging yen cushioned the impact, leaving gold at $4,420 and silver near $66 (p. 1).
- Geopolitical escalation between the US and Iran on September 7 supported gold but also drove Brent to $97 and WTI to $92, feeding inflation expectations (p. 1).
Asian Physical Markets and Structural Changes
- The Asian physical market in late July showed divergence: Chinese dealers quoted premia of $3 to $6/oz, while Indian dealers offered discounts up to $56/oz (p. 1).
- Four major Chinese banks (ICBC, Postal Savings, Ping An, and Guangfa) stopped offering retail clients leveraged precious metals trading linked to the SGE on July 24, thinning the domestic retail order book (pp. 1-2).
- CME launched 24-hour, 7-day gold futures running through weekends starting in July, extending Western continuous price discovery (p. 2).
Central Bank Activity and Global Flows
- The World Gold Council reported record central bank net buying of 289t in Q2, with the People's Bank of China extending its buying streak to 19 consecutive months as of May (p. 2).
- The Netherlands moved 56t of gold from the US to London due to fears of US asset freezing, contributing to an increase in LBMA vault holdings (p. 2).
Private Credit and Real Estate Concerns
- Post-GFC regulations on "duration mismatch" shifted activity to the private banking and life assurance sectors, raising risks of credit defaults amid persistent inflation (p. 2).
- An emergency funding of A$3.4Bn (US$2.5Bn) for insolvent Australian builder Bathla has pressured Australian real estate and private credit markets (pp. 2-3).
Inventories, ETFs, and Managed Money Positioning
- COMEX inventories for the week ending September 4 saw gold stocks rise 0.9% to 851.5t and silver stocks rise under 0.1% to 10,534.7t, though both remain heavily down year-to-date (p. 3).
- Gold ETFs rose 0.4% to 3,093.0t, while silver ETFs fell 0.1% to 24,875.9t as of September 4 (p. 3).
- Managed money took profits in the week to September 1, with gold net longs falling 5.5% to 425.4t and silver net longs falling 10.5% to 2,059.5t, driven by long liquidation rather than new shorting (p. 4).

StoneX weekly gold and silver round-up - written for retail clients

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