#Gold #Silver Lower Today on Similar, Familiar Themes — Higher Yields, Firm Crude and Continued Middle East Uncertainty. Implied Gold EFP on Watchgold is trading lower with price selloff.

Gold and silver are lower today, pressured by many of the same themes that have been driving price action recently.

The implied Gold EFP on WatchGold.org is approximately $1.25 lower than yesterday, prompting some banks to reduce short CME positions and take small profits on their EFP trades.

As of today, August 18, the 60-day U.S.–Iran MOU has expired without an extension, keeping geopolitical uncertainty and the potential inflationary impact of elevated energy prices, front and center. Crude is slightly higher today and has now risen for three consecutive sessions.

At the same time, long-term U.S. interest rates remain a significant headwind. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has reached its highest level since 2007, while the 10-year yield remains elevated. With crude oil at these levels and long-term yields pushing higher, the FOMC has reason to remain cautious about the rate outlook. On the positive side for precious metals, the market-implied probability of a September rate hike has fallen to approximately 31%, and that reduction in rate-hike expectations has been one of the factors supporting gold's recent rally. As I have been saying for some time, patience remains the best trade in this headline-driven environment. Although, I have become increasingly cautiously optimistic about the underlying price action. Today's pullback doesn't change that view for me. Let's see how the market responds from here.