My good friend Ralph Mizrahi put out an interesting LinkedIn post on GLD options. He is a great source for following options activity, and there has clearly been some notable call buying. With that said, implied volatility was hit hard today. One-month ATM implied volatility in gold is around 21%, while silver is around 36%. Despite the call buying we are seeing in GLD, the options market appears to be reflecting a market that, at least for now, remains relatively range-bound.

That doesn’t mean we won’t see sharp moves. In fact, I think we need to be prepared for exactly that.

The Iran/Middle East crisis remains a major source of uncertainty, with no clear resolution in sight. Hopefully, we see a resolution over the next 6–12 months, but the timing is impossible to know.

There is also considerable uncertainty heading into the U.S. midterm elections and the future balance of power in Congress. At the recent CME Precious Metals Dinner, former Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin discussed this uncertainty and its potential implications for markets and legislation. My takeaway from his comments was the importance of patience while these major uncertainties remain unresolved.

The sentiment at the CME dinner was also interesting. From the people I spoke with and the audience discussion, there seemed to be considerable optimism about where gold could be a year from now, but much less conviction about the short-term direction. That distinction is important.

You can remain constructive on the longer-term outlook for gold and silver while still recognizing that the short-term market may need time to consolidate.

Another factor I continue to watch is reduced risk-taking by banks. When dealers are willing to warehouse less risk, liquidity can disappear quickly. That can contribute to sudden intraday moves, wider spreads and sharp changes in price, even when the broader market remains within a range. We have already seen evidence of this increased volatility across the precious metals markets. CME recently reported that heightened market volatility contributed to increased metals volumes during the first half of 2026. So, despite the GLD call buying and my continued positive longer-term view on precious metals, I don't think this is a market where every move needs to be chased.

Patience may still be the best trade at the moment. Educational purposes only. Not investment advice.