Despite the near-term pressure, my longer-term outlook for gold and silver remains positive. A key question is when geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran crisis begin to ease, and U.S. rates ultimately move lower. That could still be 6–12 months away.

The longer-term fundamentals have not changed. China reportedly recorded its largest monthly gold purchase in three years, approximately 740,000 ounces, bringing reported reserves to 77.47 million ounces, according to China Daily. We also heard supportive views on gold’s strategic role from major central-bank holders (Germany and Italy) at the LBMA Global Precious Metals Conference this week. Investment flows remain notable as well. According to the World Gold Council, global gold ETFs attracted approximately $10 billion in September, taking Q3 inflows to a record $31 billion, led by European- and North American-listed funds. Meanwhile, the derivatives market is worth watching closely. Implied gold EFPs on WatchGold remain elevated and did not decline materially alongside the underlying gold price. One-month ATM implied volatility also remained relatively unchanged at approximately 20.3% for gold and 32.5% for silver. Price action can change quickly. The bigger question is whether today’s higher rates and stronger dollar represent a change in the longer-term precious-metals story, or simply another period of volatility within it.

For educational and informational purposes only. This is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security, commodity or financial instrument.