Total Risk-Off in Precious Metals: #Gold Down $100 (2.5%) and #Silver Down $2.70 (5.5%) presently.
Precious metals continue to face significant selling pressure, with gold down approximately $110 and silver falling $3 (5.5%) on the day.
The combination of recent U.S. economic data pointing to persistent inflation, selling pressure in equities, and elevated crude oil prices continues to weigh heavily on gold and silver. Higher inflation raises concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to keep U.S. interest rates elevated for longer, adding further pressure to precious metals.
In addition, political uncertainty surrounding the upcoming midterm elections, including the possibility of Democrats gaining control of the House and Senate, may be adding to broader market concerns.
As I have been saying repeatedly for the past several months, patience remains the best approach in this environment.
I continue to believe that this is not the time to aggressively add to positions, as markets remain too driven by negative headlines, geopolitical uncertainty, and interest rate expectations. There are two major developments that I believe could help change the direction of precious metals: A meaningful resolution to the Iran and broader Middle East crisis, which could help ease crude oil prices and reduce inflationary pressures. Lower U.S. dollar interest rates, which would reduce some of the headwinds facing gold and silver. The big question is when either of these developments will occur. My guess is that we may still be six months away from seeing meaningful improvement, although the timing remains anyone's guess. Clearly, the Iran conflict has proven far more prolonged and complicated than the short war initially anticipated by the U.S. administration. We are now eight months into the crisis, with no lasting resolution in sight, and the consequences continue to be felt across energy, inflation, interest rates, and financial markets. One potential bright spot is India's upcoming wedding season. Hopefully, the seasonal increase in physical gold and silver demand, particularly following India's reduction in silver import duties, will provide the much-needed demand boost these markets sorely need. It will be important to watch whether stronger Indian buying translates into increased imports, tighter physical liquidity, and improved market sentiment.
The longer-term fundamentals for precious metals remain intact, in my view, but that does not mean prices cannot move considerably lower before conditions improve. We need to get past some major obstacles before the market can establish a more sustainable recovery. Until then, I believe preserving patience and discipline is far more important than trying to pick a bottom. Hopefully, comin Sometimes the most difficult trade is doing nothing. #Gold #Silver #PreciousMetals #Commodities #Inflation #FOMC #InterestRates #CrudeOil #Geopolitics For educational and informational purposes only, not investment advice.
Sign in to see more insights