Gold and EV Market Highlights (June 2026)
- Indian gold bullion imports fell to 19.8t, marking the lowest monthly total since April 2023 (p. 1).
- Gold ETPs in India added 2.5t, bringing total holdings to 119t (p. 1).
- Indian EV sales increased by 70% year-over-year to 306k units (p. 1).
Silver Import Restrictions and Licensing Regime
- To curb dollar outflows and discourage precious metals purchases, the government raised import duties on gold and silver from 6% to 15% and restricted refined silver imports (p. 1).
- All forms of silver except silver doré now require a mandatory import license from the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) (p. 1).
- These restrictions caused Indian silver imports to drop to 47t in May and 37t in June, bringing the H1 2026 total to a three-year low of 1,874t (pp. 1, 3).
- Because India imports 85% of its consumed silver, the supply tightness drew down MCX vault stocks from 180t at the end of June to 118t (p. 3).
Impact on Silver Premiums
- Supply tightness and a slight demand pickup pushed domestic silver premiums to nearly 10% in July, the highest level since the October silver squeeze (p. 1).
- The average July premium reached $5/oz, the highest monthly average since Metals Focus began tracking the data in 2019 (p. 1).
- Recent approvals for banks (100t) and traders (estimated 300t) helped narrow premiums from $6.3/oz in early July to $4.7/oz by the end of July, though premiums are not expected to normalize fully (p. 3).
Silver Demand Trends and Outlook
- Total silver demand is projected to fall by 13% year-over-year to 5,874t in 2026, driven by local prices remaining 166% higher year-over-year in H1 2026 (p. 3).
- While investment demand saw brief improvement with 175t of exchange-traded product inflows in June, jewellery and silverware demand remained lacklustre in H1 (p. 3).
- Demand is expected to improve in H2 2026 due to price stabilization (Rs. 200,000-250,000/kg) and the festive/wedding season, requiring an additional 2,000-3,000t of imports (p. 3).
Market Risks and Supply Outlook
- A deficient monsoon—with rainfall 16% below normal and Kharif sowing down 4.7% year-over-year to 78.7m hectares—poses a risk to rural incomes, which drive over half of India's silver jewellery demand (p. 5).
- Import allocations are expected to fall short of peak festive demand, and time lags in import approvals could cause premiums to spike again (p. 5).

Gold and EV Market Highlights (June 2026)
- Indian gold bullion imports fell to 19.8t, marking the lowest monthly total since April 2023 (p. 1).
- Gold ETPs in India added 2.5t, bringing total holdings to 119t (p. 1).
- Indian EV sales increased by 70% year-over-year to 306k units (p. 1).
Silver Import Restrictions and Licensing Regime
- To curb dollar outflows and discourage precious metals purchases, the government raised import duties on gold and silver from 6% to 15% and restricted refined silver imports (p. 1).
- All forms of silver except silver doré now require a mandatory import license from the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) (p. 1).
- These restrictions caused Indian silver imports to drop to 47t in May and 37t in June, bringing the H1 2026 total to a three-year low of 1,874t (pp. 1, 3).
- Because India imports 85% of its consumed silver, the supply tightness drew down MCX vault stocks from 180t at the end of June to 118t (p. 3).
Impact on Silver Premiums
- Supply tightness and a slight demand pickup pushed domestic silver premiums to nearly 10% in July, the highest level since the October silver squeeze (p. 1).
- The average July premium reached $5/oz, the highest monthly average since Metals Focus began tracking the data in 2019 (p. 1).
- Recent approvals for banks (100t) and traders (estimated 300t) helped narrow premiums from $6.3/oz in early July to $4.7/oz by the end of July, though premiums are not expected to normalize fully (p. 3).
Silver Demand Trends and Outlook
- Total silver demand is projected to fall by 13% year-over-year to 5,874t in 2026, driven by local prices remaining 166% higher year-over-year in H1 2026 (p. 3).
- While investment demand saw brief improvement with 175t of exchange-traded product inflows in June, jewellery and silverware demand remained lacklustre in H1 (p. 3).
- Demand is expected to improve in H2 2026 due to price stabilization (Rs. 200,000-250,000/kg) and the festive/wedding season, requiring an additional 2,000-3,000t of imports (p. 3).
Market Risks and Supply Outlook
- A deficient monsoon—with rainfall 16% below normal and Kharif sowing down 4.7% year-over-year to 78.7m hectares—poses a risk to rural incomes, which drive over half of India's silver jewellery demand (p. 5).
- Import allocations are expected to fall short of peak festive demand, and time lags in import approvals could cause premiums to spike again (p. 5).

Will the premiums in the Indian silver market sustain amid the new licensing regime?

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Will the premiums in the Indian silver market sustain amid the new licensing regime?

Lector interactivo