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Bonds, basement and US debt (2-minute read)

Por StoneX · 21 de agosto de 2026

  • US Treasury's Liquidity Support Buyback Expansion (p. 2)
    • The U.S. Department of the Treasury announced on August 19, 2026, that it is doubling the size of its liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated nominal coupon securities (p. 2).
      • The maximum size per operation will increase from $2 billion to at least $4 billion (p. 2).
      • The change is effective from September 9, 2026, through the remainder of the refunding quarter ending November 4, 2026 (p. 2).
      • The operations target the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year sectors to provide greater liquidity support (p. 2).
    • Prior to August 20, 2026, the Treasury's 2026 refunding included $20.2 billion in 20-30Y operations (11 operations) and $42.2 billion in 10-20Y operations (22 operations), plus $0.2 billion from long-dated TIPS (p. 2).
  • Market Reactions and Debt Implications (pp. 1-2)
    • US debt exceeded $40 trillion for the first time on August 18, 2026, and now exceeds US GDP (pp. 1-2).
    • Bond prices fell 21 points in the 14 hours following the Treasury's statement before restoring equilibrium (p. 2).
    • Gold's market response reflects uncertainty, with independent bond market experts suggesting the buyback expansion is "akin to applying a plaster to an open wound" given the size of the US debt (p. 2).
    • Debt held by the public rose by $2.45 trillion year-over-year (an 8.2% gain), with these holders being highly price-sensitive (p. 2).
    • Funding costs are expected to rise because the average coupon on outstanding stocks is below current yields, meaning rolls on maturity will be set at higher rates (p. 2).
  • Federal Balance Sheet and Bond Yield Status (pp. 1-3)
    • The Federal Reserve balance sheet has edged up by $0.11 trillion so far in 2026, reaching $6.74 trillion (p. 2).
    • While 30-year bonds are literally not underwater, 5-year and 10-year bonds are (pp. 1, 3).
    • The 30-year bond is currently trading well below par (p. 2).

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