Ruthenium and Iridium: Structural Market Tightness in the Era of AI
Por Metals Focus · 23 de julho de 2026
- Supply Dynamics of Ruthenium and Iridium
- Global primary production is highly constrained and inelastic, with annual output limited to 872-915koz for ruthenium and 231-249koz for iridium (p. 1).
- Almost all supply is generated as a by-product of platinum and palladium mining, meaning production is dictated by platinum basket economics rather than minor metal prices (p. 1).
- Recycling is primarily conducted through closed-loop systems, though sustained high prices could make open-loop recycling from spark plugs, mixed metal oxide electrodes, and legacy applications commercially viable (pp. 1, 3).
- Ruthenium Demand and Market Drivers
- Ruthenium prices rose by over 160% in 2025, driven by aggressive procurement for AI infrastructure and EV architecture due to the metal's electrical conductivity and chemical stability (p. 3).
- Thrifting efforts, such as the transition from perpendicular magnetic recording (PMR) to heat-assisted magnetic recording (HAMR), reduce per-unit ruthenium loading in seed layers (pp. 3, 5).
- Despite thrifting, the explosion in data storage demand from AI data centers has boosted overall hard disk drive shipments, keeping the market structurally tight (p. 5).
- Iridium Demand and Market Drivers
- The rapid expansion of AI computing has surged demand for single-crystal materials, which require iridium crucibles capable of withstanding temperatures exceeding 2,400°C (p. 5).
- Because these crucibles degrade over time, they represent a recurring high-value consumable directly linked to AI hardware growth (p. 5).
- Absolute physical scarcity of iridium reserves limits volume growth, forcing the crucible ecosystem to focus on closed-loop material efficiency (p. 5).
- Market Outlook and Forecasts
- Both ruthenium and iridium markets are projected to be in deficit in 2026, with deficits likely persisting further out (p. 5).
- The average price forecasts for 2026 are $7,300/oz for iridium and $1,540/oz for ruthenium (p. 5).
- Other Precious Metals Market Updates
- Gold prices retreated from two-week highs due to inflationary pressures from rising oil prices (p. 1).
- Silver inventories at CME warehouses reached a four-month high of 330Moz (p. 1).
- Platinum producer Northam completed its five-year Shaft 3 project at the Zondereinde mine, and BlackRock increased its stake in the company to 5% (p. 1).
- Palladium producer Sibanye-Stillwater appealed a US International Trade Commission finding that Russian unwrought palladium imports had not harmed US production (p. 1).