Let's Take a Look at hashtag#Silver: Implied EFPs, Inventory Balances and London OTC Rates

It's a relatively quiet day in precious metals, with crude oil lower and both gold and silver slightly higher. But underneath the quiet price action, there are some interesting developments in the silver market worth watching. The implied September Silver EFP on WatchGold.org is now displaying approximately -1 cent. One factor behind this is the September/December futures roll, which is trading at a relatively high implied yield as leveraged longs roll their September positions into December rather than take delivery and finance the physical silver.

That dynamic is pushing the December Silver EFP to a significantly higher implied yield than the London OTC market, approximately 4.15% versus roughly 3.25% OTC. That premium is worth watching. At the same time, silver inventories have been rebuilding globally. As Hugo Pascal has been highlighting, LBMA London silver inventories were above 900 million ounces as of July, while CME warehouse stocks are relatively steady around 337 million ounces. China has also been rebuilding silver inventories. Why does this matter? Silver's previous parabolic move occurred during a period of extreme tightness in the London OTC market, when physical availability became constrained and silver lease rates surged to approximately 25–30%. Today's market looks quite different, with inventories rebuilding and London OTC rates substantially more liquid. For silver to begin its next major leg higher, we may need to see the physical and OTC markets tighten again, potentially driven by stronger ETF inflows and renewed physical demand. With today's relatively quiet price action, 1-month ATM implied volatility has also eased, with gold around 24.5% and silver around 43%. For now, I'm watching Silver EFPs, the September/December roll, London OTC rates, global inventories and ETF flows closely. These markets often tell us what's happening beneath the surface before it becomes obvious in the price. This commentary is provided for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.