India's Silver Import Quotas and Domestic Market Impact
- The Indian government reported releasing ~6,000t in silver import quotas over six months to ease domestic market conditions (p. 2).
  - Import duties were raised in May from 6% to 15% through a 5% agriculture levy and 10% customs duty to lower the trade deficit (p. 2).
  - Average net silver imports dropped from 514tpm (January 2025 to April 2026) to 41tpm between May and July (p. 2).
- Releasing quotas helps supply the market ahead of key festival and wedding seasons, such as Diwali on November 8th (p. 2).
  - India has averaged 66.7% of the global silverware market over the past ten years (p. 2).
  - October pre-festival buying reached 1,566t last year, and the quota release is expected to prevent a domestic physical squeeze (p. 2).
Federal Reserve Beige Book Regional Economic Summary
- Manufacturing showed strength in certain regions, but broader consumer growth remained constrained and bifurcated by income level (p. 4).
  - Dallas reported robust manufacturing improvements, six Districts noted modest-to-moderate growth, and five Districts saw little or no growth (p. 4).
  - Lower-income households tightened spending while high-income households supported overall consumer activity (p. 4).
- Employment remained mostly flat while inflation pressures resurfaced in several Districts (p. 4).
  - Staffing plans were constrained by AI productivity gains alongside continued difficulties sourcing skilled workers (p. 4).
  - Four Districts reported an accelerated pace of price increases driven by oil, diesel, commodities, tariffs, and insurance (p. 4).
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Outlook
- Fedspeak during the week of 12–15 October 2026 showed varying stances on rate hikes following September's rate adjustment (p. 5).
  - John Williams, Susan Collins, and Beth Hammack indicated support for one additional interest rate hike in 2026, while Michelle Bowman advocated a dovish wait-and-see stance (p. 5).
  - Christopher Waller noted that higher long-term yields could reduce the necessity for consecutive rate increases (p. 5).
- Markets priced in upcoming FOMC decision expectations for October 27–28 and December 8–9 (p. 5).
  - A hot September CPI reading of 3.7% y/y (core +0.3% m/m) raised CME October rate-hike odds to 35–47% (p. 5).
  - Nearly all Fed speakers backed one more 2026 rate hike, making a December hike close to fully priced (p. 5).

Indian Government reportedly allows fresh silver import quotas. We assess the significance to this major silver market

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