Will the Turkish gold retail investment recover in H2.26?

Turkish Gold Retail Investment Trends
- Historical Volatility and Economic Drivers
  - Retail investment in small bars and coins rose from 61t in 2021 to a record 150t in 2023, before declining to 71t in 2025 (p. 1).
  - Demand has been driven by high inflation, which peaked officially at 65% in December 2023, and ongoing concerns regarding currency stability (p. 1).
  - Despite recent corrections, Turkey was the world’s third-largest market for retail gold investment in 2025, trailing only China and India (p. 1).
- Impact of Monetary Policy on Demand
  - Aggressive interest rate hikes to 50% in 2024 by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) initially reduced gold's appeal compared to lira-denominated savings (p. 3).
  - A subsequent easing cycle, which saw the policy rate move from 43% to 40.5%, helped net investment rise 30% year-on-year to 26t in Q1 2026 (p. 3).
  - Investment growth in 2026 is expected to be modest, as domestic interest rates remain high enough to prevent a return to 2023–2024 peak buying levels (p. 5).
- Supply Dynamics and Local Premiums
  - Import restrictions were implemented in 2023 to protect foreign exchange reserves, contributing to local premiums reaching $200/oz in early 2024 (p. 3).
  - Premiums were highly volatile in early 2026, spiking to $400/oz in February before retreating to single-digit discounts or low double-digit premiums by June (p. 5).
  - Local premiums are projected to remain largely contained between $25–35/oz for the remainder of 2026 (p. 5).
Global Precious Metals Market Updates
- Gold and Silver Market Movements
  - International gold prices rose above $4,100 in June 2026 following US job growth data that fell below market expectations (p. 1).
  - The gold:silver ratio retreated toward 67 after briefly surpassing 70 for the first time since February (p. 1).
- Industrial and Automotive Sector Developments
  - A joint venture between Acme Group and IHI received Japanese government backing for a planned green ammonia production facility (p. 1).
  - Toyota's global production decreased by 5.5% year-on-year in May to 765,000 units, while sales fell 7.2% to 834,000 units (p. 1).

Turkish Gold Retail Investment Trends
- Historical Volatility and Economic Drivers
  - Retail investment in small bars and coins rose from 61t in 2021 to a record 150t in 2023, before declining to 71t in 2025 (p. 1).
  - Demand has been driven by high inflation, which peaked officially at 65% in December 2023, and ongoing concerns regarding currency stability (p. 1).
  - Despite recent corrections, Turkey was the world’s third-largest market for retail gold investment in 2025, trailing only China and India (p. 1).
- Impact of Monetary Policy on Demand
  - Aggressive interest rate hikes to 50% in 2024 by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) initially reduced gold's appeal compared to lira-denominated savings (p. 3).
  - A subsequent easing cycle, which saw the policy rate move from 43% to 40.5%, helped net investment rise 30% year-on-year to 26t in Q1 2026 (p. 3).
  - Investment growth in 2026 is expected to be modest, as domestic interest rates remain high enough to prevent a return to 2023–2024 peak buying levels (p. 5).
- Supply Dynamics and Local Premiums
  - Import restrictions were implemented in 2023 to protect foreign exchange reserves, contributing to local premiums reaching $200/oz in early 2024 (p. 3).
  - Premiums were highly volatile in early 2026, spiking to $400/oz in February before retreating to single-digit discounts or low double-digit premiums by June (p. 5).
  - Local premiums are projected to remain largely contained between $25–35/oz for the remainder of 2026 (p. 5).
Global Precious Metals Market Updates
- Gold and Silver Market Movements
  - International gold prices rose above $4,100 in June 2026 following US job growth data that fell below market expectations (p. 1).
  - The gold:silver ratio retreated toward 67 after briefly surpassing 70 for the first time since February (p. 1).
- Industrial and Automotive Sector Developments
  - A joint venture between Acme Group and IHI received Japanese government backing for a planned green ammonia production facility (p. 1).
  - Toyota's global production decreased by 5.5% year-on-year in May to 765,000 units, while sales fell 7.2% to 834,000 units (p. 1).

Will the Turkish gold retail investment recover in H2.26?

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Will the Turkish gold retail investment recover in H2.26?

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