Will the premiums in the Indian silver market sustain amid the new licensing regime?
作者：Metals Focus · 2026年8月1日
- Gold and EV Market Highlights (June 2026)
- Indian gold bullion imports fell to 19.8t, marking the lowest monthly total since April 2023 (p. 1).
- Gold ETPs in India added 2.5t, bringing total holdings to 119t (p. 1).
- Indian EV sales increased by 70% year-over-year to 306k units (p. 1).
- Silver Import Restrictions and Licensing Regime
- To curb dollar outflows and discourage precious metals purchases, the government raised import duties on gold and silver from 6% to 15% and restricted refined silver imports (p. 1).
- All forms of silver except silver doré now require a mandatory import license from the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) (p. 1).
- These restrictions caused Indian silver imports to drop to 47t in May and 37t in June, bringing the H1 2026 total to a three-year low of 1,874t (pp. 1, 3).
- Because India imports 85% of its consumed silver, the supply tightness drew down MCX vault stocks from 180t at the end of June to 118t (p. 3).
- Impact on Silver Premiums
- Supply tightness and a slight demand pickup pushed domestic silver premiums to nearly 10% in July, the highest level since the October silver squeeze (p. 1).
- The average July premium reached $5/oz, the highest monthly average since Metals Focus began tracking the data in 2019 (p. 1).
- Recent approvals for banks (100t) and traders (estimated 300t) helped narrow premiums from $6.3/oz in early July to $4.7/oz by the end of July, though premiums are not expected to normalize fully (p. 3).
- Silver Demand Trends and Outlook
- Total silver demand is projected to fall by 13% year-over-year to 5,874t in 2026, driven by local prices remaining 166% higher year-over-year in H1 2026 (p. 3).
- While investment demand saw brief improvement with 175t of exchange-traded product inflows in June, jewellery and silverware demand remained lacklustre in H1 (p. 3).
- Demand is expected to improve in H2 2026 due to price stabilization (Rs. 200,000-250,000/kg) and the festive/wedding season, requiring an additional 2,000-3,000t of imports (p. 3).
- Market Risks and Supply Outlook
- A deficient monsoon—with rainfall 16% below normal and Kharif sowing down 4.7% year-over-year to 78.7m hectares—poses a risk to rural incomes, which drive over half of India's silver jewellery demand (p. 5).
- Import allocations are expected to fall short of peak festive demand, and time lags in import approvals could cause premiums to spike again (p. 5).