Precious Metals Market Dynamics and Performance
- Gold and silver experienced a sharp rally following weaker-than-expected US employment data, with gold testing $4,400 and silver trading around $65 (p. 9).
  - Technical outlooks improved as gold traded above its 50-day moving average of $4,153 and silver found support at its 50-day moving average of $62 (p. 9).
- Physical demand and industrial factors present mixed signals, with quiet physical demand in Southeast Asia and India due to an inauspicious wedding season (p. 9).
  - Silver demand from the solar sector faces a projected 20% decline this year due to oversupply, thrifting, and potential copper substitution (p. 9).
- Year-to-date price performance in USD shows gold up 2.0%, silver down 7.3%, palladium down 15.0%, and platinum down 17.4% (p. 37).
US Monetary Policy and Political Developments
- President Trump renewed efforts to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by sending a formal letter on August 5, 2026, alleging mortgage fraud (pp. 12-13).
  - This followed a June 2026 Supreme Court ruling that blocked her immediate firing, giving her three weeks to respond to the new allegations (pp. 12-13).
- Federal Reserve speakers expressed differing views on interest rates and the labor market (p. 14).
  - Neel Kashkari and Beth Hammack supported rate hikes, while Thomas Barkin described the labor market as being in a "weak balance" (p. 14).
Global Economic Indicators and Surveys
- China's economic slowdown is broadening, with July PMI data showing contractions in manufacturing (49.2), non-manufacturing (49.0), and construction (47.0) (p. 18).
- Bloomberg economic surveys adjusted forecasts, raising the US 2026 GDP forecast to 2.1% (p. 20) and raising the probability of a recession in China from 20% to 15% (p. 3, p. 21).
Global Gold Demand and Central Bank Activity
- Global gold demand in Q2 2026 was stable YoY at 1,269 tonnes, though jewellery demand hit its lowest quarter since the pandemic (p. 33).
  - Jewellery fabrication exceeded consumption for the fourth consecutive quarter, increasing inventory by 118.5 tonnes (noted as 119 tonnes in text) over the past year (p. 33).
- Central bank net purchases rebounded to 289 tonnes in Q2, led by Poland (51t) and China (reported 33t) (p. 35).
  - The Bank of Korea announced plans to resume gold purchases for the first time in 13 years (p. 35).
ETPs, Inventories, and Market Positions
- Gold ETP holdings stood at 4,068 tonnes by late July, reflecting a YTD increase of 39 tonnes (p. 38).
- Silver ETPs experienced a weekly gain of 160 tonnes to reach 24,636 tonnes, despite a net YTD loss of 2,184 tonnes (p. 38).
- LBMA vaulted gold rose by 70 tonnes in July, while vaulted silver rose by 428 tonnes (p. 40).
Supply and Demand Forecasts
- Gold (2026f) is projected to have a surplus balance of 1,647 tonnes, with total supply at 5,230 tonnes against total demand of 3,583 tonnes (p. 42).
- Silver (2026e) is estimated to have a balance of 3,465 tonnes, with total supply at 33,169 tonnes against total demand of 29,704 tonnes (p. 43).
- Platinum (2026e) and palladium (2026e) are both projected to face physical deficits of 60,000 ounces and 306,000 ounces, respectively (p. 44, p. 45).

StoneX Precious Metals Front Desk weekly presentation; Trump having another crack at Lisa Cook

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