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Implied gold EFP trading high but silver even higher due to tariff threats

作者:Robert Gottlieb · 2026年8月4日

While the implied December gold EFP on Watchgold shows $57.25, that is a little high due to time delays between our spot and futures prices. The broker settled December gold EFP at $56.50 which is approximately 4.25% and a 20 basis points premium to London OTC. The silver Efp to September settled 21.5 cents in the broker and shows 21 cents implied on Watchgold spot silver page. This is close to 5 percent yield to September, which is over 100 bps premium to London spot silver price. Clearly this is reflecting a threat of tariffs on investment grade silver (1000 oz bars). There seems to be a misinterpretation of the rules by the government department that sets the tariff policy. I understand there will probably be a clarification of this, but in the meantime this risk on investment grade silver exists.

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