Precious Metals Market Trends and Performance
- Gold and silver remain range-bound with downside risks (p. 9).
  - Gold is constrained between $4,000 and $4,200, while silver hovers below $60 (p. 9).
  - Physical demand in India and the Middle East is sluggish, with India's monsoon tracking 10% below average (p. 9).
- Precious metals generally declined year-to-date relative to the US Dollar Index, which rose by 3.1% (p. 40).
  - Gold fell by 7.2%, silver by 20.6%, and platinum by 25.4% (p. 40).
  - The silver-to-gold correlation eased to 0.79, while the silver-to-copper correlation stabilized at 0.67 (p. 40).
Global Demand, Central Banks, and Investment Products
- Total global gold demand, including OTC, was unchanged year-over-year at 1,269 tonnes in Q2 (p. 10).
  - Chinese jewellery demand dropped 25% year-over-year to 50 tonnes (p. 10).
- Central bank net purchases rebounded to 289 tonnes in Q2, led by Poland (51 tonnes) and China (33 tonnes) (p. 11).
  - The Bank of Korea announced plans to resume gold purchases for the first time in 13 years (p. 11).
- Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) showed mixed trends year-to-date (p. 41).
  - Gold ETP holdings rose by 32t to 4,057t, driven by gains in Asia and Europe (p. 41).
  - Silver ETFs dropped by 2,328t to 24,493t, and platinum holdings fell by 15.4t (p. 41).
US and China Economic Outlooks
- The FOMC kept the Fed funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in a 9:3 vote (p. 7, p. 13).
  - Three members dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point hike (p. 7, p. 13).
  - Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh emphasized there is "no soft inflation target" and is pulling back from forward guidance (p. 14, p. 16).
- China's July PMI data confirmed a broadening economic slowdown (p. 20).
  - Manufacturing PMI contracted to 49.2 and non-manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 (p. 20).
  - Bloomberg's China Economic Survey noted the probability of recession was "raised from 20% to 15%" (p. 25).
CME Gold Contracts and Vault Inventories
- The CME Group updated its one-ounce gold futures contract to allow 24/7 trading on July 26 (p. 37).
  - The contract averaged 282,931 ounces daily in its first month of trading (p. 38).
  - The first weekend of round-the-clock trading saw approximately 15,000 contracts traded (p. 38).
- CME and LBMA inventories generally edged upward (p. 43).
  - LBMA vaulted gold rose by 72t in June, and vaulted silver rose by 471t (p. 43).
Supply and Demand Balances
- Gold and silver are projected to have supply surpluses in 2026 (p. 45, p. 46).
  - Gold's projected supply is 5,230t against demand of 3,583t, leaving a 1,647t balance (p. 45).
  - Silver's estimated supply is 33,169t against demand of 29,704t (excluding ETPs) (p. 46).
- Platinum and Palladium are both projected to face physical deficits in 2026 (pp. 47-48).
  - Platinum's deficit is estimated at 60k oz, with supply at 7,418k oz and demand at 7,478k oz (p. 47).
  - Palladium's deficit is estimated at 306k oz, with supply at 9,245k oz and demand at 9,550k oz (p. 48).

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