Ruthenium and Iridium: Structural Market Tightness in the Era of AI

Supply Dynamics of Ruthenium and Iridium
- Global primary production is highly constrained and inelastic, with annual output limited to 872-915koz for ruthenium and 231-249koz for iridium (p. 1).
- Almost all supply is generated as a by-product of platinum and palladium mining, meaning production is dictated by platinum basket economics rather than minor metal prices (p. 1).
- Recycling is primarily conducted through closed-loop systems, though sustained high prices could make open-loop recycling from spark plugs, mixed metal oxide electrodes, and legacy applications commercially viable (pp. 1, 3).
Ruthenium Demand and Market Drivers
- Ruthenium prices rose by over 160% in 2025, driven by aggressive procurement for AI infrastructure and EV architecture due to the metal's electrical conductivity and chemical stability (p. 3).
- Thrifting efforts, such as the transition from perpendicular magnetic recording (PMR) to heat-assisted magnetic recording (HAMR), reduce per-unit ruthenium loading in seed layers (pp. 3, 5).
- Despite thrifting, the explosion in data storage demand from AI data centers has boosted overall hard disk drive shipments, keeping the market structurally tight (p. 5).
Iridium Demand and Market Drivers
- The rapid expansion of AI computing has surged demand for single-crystal materials, which require iridium crucibles capable of withstanding temperatures exceeding 2,400°C (p. 5).
- Because these crucibles degrade over time, they represent a recurring high-value consumable directly linked to AI hardware growth (p. 5).
- Absolute physical scarcity of iridium reserves limits volume growth, forcing the crucible ecosystem to focus on closed-loop material efficiency (p. 5).
Market Outlook and Forecasts
- Both ruthenium and iridium markets are projected to be in deficit in 2026, with deficits likely persisting further out (p. 5).
- The average price forecasts for 2026 are $7,300/oz for iridium and $1,540/oz for ruthenium (p. 5).
Other Precious Metals Market Updates
- Gold prices retreated from two-week highs due to inflationary pressures from rising oil prices (p. 1).
- Silver inventories at CME warehouses reached a four-month high of 330Moz (p. 1).
- Platinum producer Northam completed its five-year Shaft 3 project at the Zondereinde mine, and BlackRock increased its stake in the company to 5% (p. 1).
- Palladium producer Sibanye-Stillwater appealed a US International Trade Commission finding that Russian unwrought palladium imports had not harmed US production (p. 1).

Supply Dynamics of Ruthenium and Iridium
- Global primary production is highly constrained and inelastic, with annual output limited to 872-915koz for ruthenium and 231-249koz for iridium (p. 1).
- Almost all supply is generated as a by-product of platinum and palladium mining, meaning production is dictated by platinum basket economics rather than minor metal prices (p. 1).
- Recycling is primarily conducted through closed-loop systems, though sustained high prices could make open-loop recycling from spark plugs, mixed metal oxide electrodes, and legacy applications commercially viable (pp. 1, 3).
Ruthenium Demand and Market Drivers
- Ruthenium prices rose by over 160% in 2025, driven by aggressive procurement for AI infrastructure and EV architecture due to the metal's electrical conductivity and chemical stability (p. 3).
- Thrifting efforts, such as the transition from perpendicular magnetic recording (PMR) to heat-assisted magnetic recording (HAMR), reduce per-unit ruthenium loading in seed layers (pp. 3, 5).
- Despite thrifting, the explosion in data storage demand from AI data centers has boosted overall hard disk drive shipments, keeping the market structurally tight (p. 5).
Iridium Demand and Market Drivers
- The rapid expansion of AI computing has surged demand for single-crystal materials, which require iridium crucibles capable of withstanding temperatures exceeding 2,400°C (p. 5).
- Because these crucibles degrade over time, they represent a recurring high-value consumable directly linked to AI hardware growth (p. 5).
- Absolute physical scarcity of iridium reserves limits volume growth, forcing the crucible ecosystem to focus on closed-loop material efficiency (p. 5).
Market Outlook and Forecasts
- Both ruthenium and iridium markets are projected to be in deficit in 2026, with deficits likely persisting further out (p. 5).
- The average price forecasts for 2026 are $7,300/oz for iridium and $1,540/oz for ruthenium (p. 5).
Other Precious Metals Market Updates
- Gold prices retreated from two-week highs due to inflationary pressures from rising oil prices (p. 1).
- Silver inventories at CME warehouses reached a four-month high of 330Moz (p. 1).
- Platinum producer Northam completed its five-year Shaft 3 project at the Zondereinde mine, and BlackRock increased its stake in the company to 5% (p. 1).
- Palladium producer Sibanye-Stillwater appealed a US International Trade Commission finding that Russian unwrought palladium imports had not harmed US production (p. 1).

Ruthenium and Iridium: Structural Market Tightness in the Era of AI

インタラクティブリーダー

Ruthenium and Iridium: Structural Market Tightness in the Era of AI

インタラクティブリーダー