Implied September Silver EFP on Watchgold platform is currently around 24¢, while the broker market settled at approximately 23¢ mid.

At 23¢ over September CME futures, the implied yield is approximately 6.0%, compared with the 1-month London OTC forward rate of 3.85%. This represents an implied premium of roughly 8¢/oz.

While the premium has widened, it is still not sufficient to economically justify significant physical silver shipments back to the United States, as it remains below the full cost of transportation and logistics. As I've mentioned previously, the market continues to await clarification from the U.S. government regarding the interpretation that could impose tariffs on investment-grade 1,000-ounce silver bars. That uncertainty remains an important factor influencing EFP pricing and the movement of physical silver between London and the U.S. The EFP market remains one of the best indicators to monitor for changes in physical market dynamics, and it will be worth watching closely over the coming days and weeks. Meanwhile London OTC rates are the highest I remember for awhile now, with 2-5 years over 2% contango and 1 weekclose to SOFR.

This commentary is provided for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.